It serves no purpose anymore to rage about what an awful man Donald Trump is, how unhinged he frequently acts, or why he should be held accountable for his crimes; he will be the president of the United States for the next four years and we must deal with that.  No doubt, President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress will seek to surreptitiously enact their radical policies – and they will succeed if we don’t know what they are attempting.  That is why my advice is to stay well informed as best you can and fight like hell against their authoritarian agenda. 

So, how do we do that during the next four years?  Unfortunately, it will be more challenging than ever.  Most of the important statistical information for articles by media organizations, thinktanks and public policy non-profits comes from 13 federal government agencies, including the Census Bureau, the IRS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve. 

Judging from his past performance, Trump will reject any data that doesn’t make him look good.  Consequently, if he implements his Schedule F plan to replace career civil servants with easily fired loyalists, I suspect that some government reports will be eliminated – perhaps in the name of efficiency – or will contain questionable or incomplete results either by design or due to incompetence.  Republicans have claimed for decades that the government can’t be trusted and now they are likely to prove it.

Social media organizations like X, Facebook and Instagram are catering to Trump and have ceased doing fact checking of user posts.  Like other sites on the Web, they will be filled with even more misinformation, some of it coming from Russia, China, Iran and other foreign adversaries.  I would not rely on anything that appears on social media, including recordings, photos and videos.

Even some mainstream for-profit news outlets, like the Washington Post and some major TV networks, may become more like Fox News that continuously provides positive stories about Trump and avoids any news that might upset him.  How widespread this becomes remains to be seen.  Therefore, we need other sources of information to judge their performance.

I suggest The Atlantic for enlightened coverage of politics and economics, The Bulwark for revealing what is going on in the Trump administration and Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American for a good analysis of current events and interesting political history.  Non-profits like USAfacts and the Peterson Institute for Internation Economics (PIIE), among others, will provide important research reports.  Also, keep an eye on the stock markets.  They are good indicators of the nation’s economic health, regardless of government claims.

Here are some facts that I wish every American voter realized: Tariffs are not paid by China as Trump claims.  They are paid by U.S. importers and usually passed along to consumers.  Undocumented immigrants are not taking American jobs as Trump claims nor surging crime rates.  The U.S. has had a shortage of workers since July 2021 and violent crimes and property crimes were considerably lower in 2024 than 2020.

Soon, however, the buck will stop with Trump.  So, he and the Republicans in Congress will have to start performing.  Yet, I don’t see how they can do it with the policies and priorities they have advanced, including extending tax cuts for the rich, slashing government agencies and programs, deporting much needed immigrant labor and imposing across the board tariffs that will likely surge inflation.

House Budget Committee chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is circulating a “menu” of possible spending reductions that members can consider for a reconciliation bill that could pare $5 .7 trillion from the federal budget over 10 years.  These reductions would offset the cost of Trump’s tax cut extensions and border security measures and would not be subject to a Senate filibuster.  They would cut billions of funding for Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and Obamacare.

But Trump won 2,600+ counties in 2024, many of which are rural, poor and heavily dependent on government benefits.  It is likely that Trump’s needy voters will get a bitter taste of his populism.  But, more on that in future posts.

Today, however, my focus is on Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. This program could cost $315+ billion, according to the American Immigration Council (AIC), and result in a decrease of between 4.2% to 6.8% ($1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion) of annual GDP.  To put this loss in perspective, the Great Recession (2007-2009) cut GDP by 4.3%, as reported by Forbes in 2023. 

Furthermore, undocumented immigrant households have paid tens of billions in federal, state and local taxes in recent years, according to the AIC, and boosted Social Security and Medicare trust funds with tens of billions of badly need funding.

Significant deportations would also cause an economy crippling loss of laborers.  Almost 14% of construction workers, almost 13% agricultural workers and seven percent of hospitality workers were undocumented in 2022, according to AIC data.  But among specialty trades, like drywallers, painters and roofers, over 30% are undocumented and so are 24% of workers processing agricultural products for sale.  No doubt these percentages will be significantly higher in 2025.

That is enough for this post; I will be writing about more Things Americans Need to Know soon.  In the meantime, you can learn about how you can help protect democracy by clicking HERE.

There is endless speculation in the media about what President Trump and his appointees will do during his second term.  Much of this is just too damn depressing and causing many news consumers to tune out.  The pundits frequently go beyond what MAGA officials can accomplish and fail to shed enough light on why they may not succeed.  Besides, trying to guess at what Trump will do is a fool’s errand.

I prefer to focus on why Trump will not be able to turn the United States into an illiberal democracy like Viktor Orban did in Hungary or anything like it.  Don’t get me wrong, he will cause huge problems, but he will not be omnipotent.

One obvious reality is that Trump is an old man who is not nearly as active or as sharp as he was in 2017.  I don’t think he is all that interested in governing nor do I believe he has a vision for America’s future.  He has mostly eliminated the criminal threats he was facing, which were his major concern, and probably just wants to take another four-year ego trip and greatly increase his wealth.  And there are many reasons why Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028, which makes him a “lame duck” this term. 

Certainly, much of what Trump has proposed will require action by Congress, which I don’t believe will be a slam dunk.  Republicans hold a slim House majority, 220 to 215 for the Democrats and a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.  Due to Trump’s cabinet appointments and Rep. Gaetz’s resignation, Republicans will have an even slimmer House majority, 217 to 215, for several months until after special elections can be held to fill these vacancies.  Even then, the House Freedom Caucus will compound the difficulty in passing Republican legislation without the help of Democrats.

Winning the 2026 election – that will occur a short 20 months after Trump is inaugurated – will be job one for every House member and for 33 Senators, 20 of which are Republicans.  Unless Republicans hold the majority in both chambers in 2027, which is no sure thing, the worst of Trump’s legislative agenda will likely be stymied.

Whatever Trump attempts, we still have the federal courts.  True, he appointed hundreds of conservative judges during his first term, including three on the Supreme Court, and he will get more confirmed starting next year.  But President Biden has also installed hundreds and so did President Obama. 

As you know, federal judges are appointed for life so they are not easily bullied.  Consequently, I don’t think they will roll over if Trump attempts to radically bend the law.  I expect the courts to mostly follow the Constitution and the rule of law, just like the Trump appointed judges did in rejecting his legal challenges to the 2020 election results.  Unlike the disgusting, supine Republicans in Congress, federal judges are very cognizant of the separation of powers and not inclined to give up their share, especially the Supreme Court.

We also have 23 blue state governors that have been preparing for a second onslaught of Trump’s lawlessness for months.  They are geared up to make good use of the courts to challenge him. Democratic states won most cases against Trump’s first administration, and they intend to continue the efforts to challenge any of his unlawful regulations or executive orders in the future.  And so will the ACLU and numerous other public interest nonprofits.

Trump made many wild promises during his campaign speeches and his supporters are expecting a lot from him as he inherits a world leading economy next year.  Consequently, he and the Republican-controlled Congress must perform for them starting in 2025 if they are to retain their advantage after the 2026 election.  

Over 85% of U.S. counties voted for Trump, according an NBC News article.  These mostly rural areas have older, poorer, sicker, less educated citizens who are suffering with fewer doctors, closing hospitals and substandard schools.  In general, they are more dependent on federal government benefits like Social Security, Medicare, food stamps and particularly Medicaid than the more urban counties.

Yet, Trump/GOP proposals on tariffs, deporting immigrants, Medicaid, Obamacare subsidies and school vouchers would hit rural areas the hardest, according to a well-documented December 13 article in The Atlantic entitled, Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters.  These would be some of the results say its author, Ronald Brownstein:

• Agricultural producers could face worse losses than any other economic sector.

• Hospitals and other health providers in rural areas could face the greatest strain.

• Millions could lose heath care insurance that is critical for combating substance abuse and chronic illnesses that are prevalent in rural areas.

• Small-town public schools would likely be more destabilized than urban school districts

Not all Trump voters are MAGA zealots that will support him no matter what he does.  Many realize that the economy is doing well in 2024 and want it to stay that way.  They voted against high inflation this year and they will be very angry if it gets worse due to Trump’s tariffs and deportation of immigrants.  

I believe those who oppose Trump should keep well informed and frequently email or call their congresspersons, particularly if they are Republicans.  That is the best way to thwart the authoritarians and oligarchs that seek to undermine our democratic republic.

Here is hoping that you have warm and wonderful holidays – a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah or whatever you are celebrating – and that your New Year brings fulfilled hopes and happiness.

No doubt many Republicans are thrilled with former president Donald Trump’s victory.  What frightens me, however, is that he won with a racist, misogynous campaign of lies and threatened revenge.  It makes me wonder if numerous white citizens and men ignored his demagoguery and voted for Trump out of fear their status would be diminished by a mixed-race female president.  And I cannot help believing that Trump’s victory writes a sad chapter about America and Americans, with a storyline that is deeply disheartening.

Yet, I understand why millions of middleclass and lower income Americans voted for Trump’s promises.  They have been screwed over by Ronald Reagan’s supply-side economic policies and Republican tax cuts for decades.  I can even sympathize with some people who didn’t vote.  They likely believe the party in power makes little or no difference for them.  But I cannot forgive the wealthier Americans who voted for a candidate who has bragged about ignoring the rule of law and subverting the Constitution.

Many Democrats are reacting to Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss with finger pointing and second guessing, but that doesn’t help the dire situation this nation is facing.  Now is the time for Democrats to objectively analyze why Trump won, organize to thwart his worst instincts, and plan to counter the Trump administration’s 2025 agenda.

That said, here are some mitigating factors that should help them.

Trump will be 83 in 2028 and legally restricted from another term.  That is to old, even if he is able to campaign.  Trump’s health can’t be all that good physically and his cognitive skills appear to be declining.  These impediments should prevent him from running again.  Current dictators, like Russian President Putin, were much younger and healthier when they took power.

Besides, many ambitious Republicans, like Sens. Rick Scott, Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, will be eager to run for president in 2028, and so will then-Vice President J. D. Vance.  The question is, can any Republican candidate take Trump’s place as the MAGA cult leader in 2028?  I doubt it; Trump is unique.  I don’t believe any of the aspirants will be able to entertain the GOP base like he can or bring hope – as Trump apparently does – to those who are struggling with their boring and difficult lives.  And it is even possible some MAGA voters might finally realize that the past 40+ years of Republican trickle-down policies are what have held them back.

Another fact of political life is that Republicans trying to hold their seats in Congress won’t want Trump’s economy damaging positions to burden their campaigns in 2026.  Consequently, they will likely try to counter his wilder impulses if they think he will hurt their chances for reelection.  In addition, if Republicans in the U.S. House are not able to unite due to far-right Freedom Caucus obstruction, Democrats will still have a lot of power – just like they have in the current Congress where they are the minority party.

Although he might try, Trump can’t unilaterally suspend the Constitution.  The Supreme Court’s almighty six conservative justices will likely rule against any position he takes that could weaken their power or that of the federal courts.  Their rulings have made the judiciary a powerful branch of the government.

One thing is certain, however, 2025 will be nothing like 2017.  Trump will be surrounded by seasoned veterans from his first term.  Both he and they will be much better educated on how to seize the reins of power and make things happen quickly.  And, there will be no traditional Republicans in Trump’s administration to hold him back this time; his advisors and cabinet members will be compliant loyalists.

One outlier though might be Susie Wiles, the Trum-designated White House chief of staff.  She must know how to handle her man-child boss and could influence his positions.  Wiles might even be able to restrain Trump from prosecuting his opponents.  Although his IRS and Department of Justice will be eager to do it.  Some Trump officials are already talking about revenge.

The surging stock markets indicate that investors apparently believe Trump will follow a more moderate economic plan and won’t impose across the board tariffs, but that could be wishful thinking.  Still, Trump seems to believe the markets are the economy and an indicator of his skill as president.  So, he may be reluctant to take any action that might significantly lower the S&P index.

Fact is though, Trump cannot close the borders, deport millions of undocumented immigrants, slap tariffs on all imports, particularly from China, and expect the economy to grow and inflation to remain low.  Many of the goods that feed U.S. manufacturing facilities are imported, including raw materials that the U.S. doesn’t or can’t produce. 

Moreover, our aging population is not providing the labor and skills needed by U.S. farms and factories; immigrants are supplying those critical resources.  And yearly U.S. budget deficits require the Treasury Department to borrow trillions of dollars, much of it from foreigners.  Trump cannot afford to blow off investors in other countries; American prosperity depends on them.

Bottom line, there will be major pushback on much of Trump’s agenda from many sides.

Regardless, America is obviously facing one of the greatest threats in its history.  But if democracy-loving citizens stay organized and focused on saving our democratic republic, I believe the GOP authoritarians and Trumpism will be defeated.

Just over a year ago, I published a blog entitled, “2024 – A Tipping Point for American Democracy.”  It described Project 2025, which I believe is a right-wing effort to establish an all-powerful presidency.  Sponsored by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation and funded by $22 million, Project 2025 brought 70 powerful conservative groups together in the Spring of 2023 to strategize how the next Republican president could achieve their objective – presumedly former president Donald Trump. 

The nearly 900-page proposal they produced, “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,” is to be implemented by thousands of conservative loyalists who could be vetted and trained by year-end 2024.  According to Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts, the objective is to dismantle the so-called “rogue administrative state.”  Critics, however, claim the goal is to establish a right-wing autocracy – and I agree.

Some of the more damaging Mandate proposals call for:

• Repealing President Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are creating good-paying jobs nationwide,

• Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security, eliminating the Department of Education and reforming (politicizing) the Department of Justice,

• Outlawing all abortion methods and restricting the availability of contraception,

• Eliminating or politicizing the currently independent Federal Reserve,

• Reducing individual income tax to two brackets, 15% and 30%, and cutting the corporate income tax rate to 18%,

• Using a Schedule F executive order to replace thousands of nonpartisan civil service-protected employees with Trump-appointed loyalists who will obey him – or be fired.  

In addition, Project 2025 has drafted dozens of executive orders for Trump to sign on inauguration day.  Quickly appointed acting officials would then use them to immediately initiate an administrative blitzkrieg designed to overwhelm efforts to block their far-right agenda. 

Trump repudiated Project 2025 after it sparked public outcry, but I am confident he will quickly begin executing a very similar plan on inauguration day if he is elected.  Why?  Well, Trump’s transition team will be headed by Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon, who is the chairperson of the deeply conservative America First Policy Institute (AFPI).  This organization has a plan very similar to the Mandate entitled, “America First Transition Project: Ready on day one,”  which hundreds of former senior GOP officials have been working on since 2022. 

Regardless, Trump has eschewed the formal transition process dictated by the Presidential Transition Act.  It should have started months ago to coordinate with the current administration and ensure that agencies operate smoothly during a turnover.  Still, Trump’s representatives have had little communication with the Biden administration, except for one September meeting at the White House, and they have refused national security briefings, according to an October 9 New York Times article.  This is troubling.

But here is what really concerns me:  Trump was not threated by jail time and loss of his business empire when he illegally attempted to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.  Then, he sent a violent mob to attack the Capitol on January 6, 2021.  This year, however, is very different.  If he loses this election, he is facing imprisonment and financial ruin in 2025.  So, I am very worried about what he might do, both illegal and seditious, to ensure he becomes president next year.  And, Republicans at all levels of government will likely support him, including numerous state election officials.

Many of them probably want Trump reelected for life, and I believe most House Republicans will obey any command Trump gives them, even if it is illegal.  Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) – who some call “MAGA Mike” – is a Trump acolyte and 2020 election denier, so he may not try to stop them.  Nor will the few remaining reasonable Republicans and less MAGA GOP politicians in Congress; they fear Trump supporters will end their political careers and/or harm their families – and here is why.

Trump continuously incites violence and threatens opponents.  His lies about 2020 election fraud caused ongoing death threats against election officials from both parties.  After he lied about the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton, his supporters interrupted relief efforts and threated agency personnel.  And Trump has repeatedly called Democrats, like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Shiff, the “enemy from within,” which puts a target on their back. 

Just imagine what he and his supporters might do during and after the 2024 election – or if he wins.   

I sincerely hope I am wrong.  But the period from election day until the winner is inaugurated – and perhaps for months thereafter – has the potential to be the most chaotic America has experienced during the past 100 years.  It could involve protracted court battles, wild stock market fluctuations and even wide-spread violence.  And, in the end, Republicans in Congress or the Supreme Court may decide who wins.  As my July blog advised, Work for the Best; Plan for the Worst.

Do not assume, however, that GOP threats to democracy are temporary and that traditional Republicans will take over the party if Trump loses.  Its radical right-wing is firmly in control, and I believe the supporters of Project 2025 are committed to establishing a Republican autocracy, even if Trump is defeated.  But if Trump wins – well, preserving American democracy will take a monumental effort.

Borrowing some phrasing from the former president’s insurrection inciting speech on January 6, 2021 – if democracy-loving Americans don’t fight like hell to defeat Trump and these tyrants, we won’t have a country anymore. 

For decades the Republican Party has advocated for lower taxes, smaller government, fewer federal regulations and federalism (basically, states’ rights).  These policies were the core of GOP ideology as the party became closely aligned with corporations and the wealthy.    

During Ronald Reagan’s administration, Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist authored a pledge to never raise taxes on anything – ever.  It was signed by almost all Republicans in Congress and no Republican will vote for a tax increase to this day.  Norquist wanted to drastically cut the size of government by starving it of tax revenue.  He believed mounting budget deficits would eventually force Congress to drastically cut spending, even for Social Security and Medicare.

Last year, Project 2025, the conservative effort to reform the federal government, produced a nearly 900-page plan, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise (the “Mandate”) that provides details on what today’s congressional Republicans want to achieve.  It recommends either delegating many federal functions back to the states or privatizing them.  And it calls for changing the current disaster cost sharing formula of 75% federal, 25% state to a graduated formula where the states’ share would be 75% for small disasters and the federal government’s share would only reach 75% for truly catastrophic disasters. 

The Mandate also calls for winding down the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that FEMA administers and replacing it with private flood insurance starting with the NFIP’s least risky areas. Many homeowners in flood prone areas can’t afford flood insurance even under this generous federal program and no doubt many more would be unable to afford more costly private insurance.

When the scientific community overwhelmingly blamed human activities, like fossil fuel burning, for the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, Republicans scoffed and fiercely fought legislation and other efforts to solve the problem.  Not one Republican in Congress voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which is primarily a climate change mitigation law, despite the increasing intensity of wild fires, hurricanes and other weather disasters. 

Even as hurricane Helene was churning up the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward the Florida panhandle, 29 Republicans who represent the southeast states being threatened by the storm recklessly voted against a stopgap spending bill that would provide $20 billion in funding for FEMA’s disaster relief fund.  And Republicans refused to include billions in additional disaster funding that President Biden had requested.

Well, I believe the tragic death of a 75-year-old Western North Carolina man who got caught in tropical storm Helene is a perfect analogy for what will happen if Republicans who deny the threat of climate change get their way.  As described in a September 30 New York Times News article, Mr. R stubbornly refused to believe his elevated trailer home – which had weathered previous storms – was threatened by the rapidly rising French Broad River, even after all nearby residents had left the area as the storm approached.   

He was standing in the doorway, waving to his family on higher ground, when suddenly he – and his entire home – were swallowed by the raging flood water, leaving behind only parts of the foundation, which are pictured above. 

Miraculously, Mr. R managed to grab onto a tree and for around seven hours kept calling for help as distressed family and neighbors looked on from higher ground, helpless to save him.  Even a local river rescue team decided it was too dangerous to enter the treacherous water.  Finally, just before 11PM, Mr. R plunged headfirst into the water and disappeared out of sight.

Like Mr. Roy’s plight, there will be no way to rescue parts of the planet ravaged by climate change disasters if scientists’ worst fears are realized.  And while Helene’s horrific damage may take a year or more to clean up, a 12-inch or more rise in ocean levels or unrelenting warming temperatures or a mini-ice age, could take centuries to resolve, if ever.

A hurricane with destructive power like Helene has not ravaged the southeast U.S. for decades.  But what if one occurs again this year or begins occurring every few years due to climate change?  Well, as I am writing this blog, tropical storm Milton in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen to a major Category 3 hurricane or stronger before making landfall along Florida’s West coast on Wednesday.

Yet, these examples of the Republican’s disastrous ideology are merely the tip of their wrongheaded and nation-damaging policy proposals.  Cutting taxes, slashing federal programs and forcing states to bear greater responsibility and funding for disaster mitigation, health care, education, infrastructure maintenance and other programs as the Mandate and Republican authored budgets always propose are sheer idiocy.  And here is why:

Not all states are equal in their ability to handle added costs and functions and many of the least able are Republican-controlled, including the poorer states in the south and west.  They simply don’t have the economic base necessary to afford more responsibilities. 

The financial website WalletHub’s report on the states most dependent on the federal government in 2024 shows that the third most dependent, Kentucky, receives $3.45 in federal funding for every $1 its residents pay in taxes and that federal funding comprises over 46% of the state’s budget.  Numerous other dependent red states are in a similar weak financial condition.

Isn’t it about time for many of those who support Republicans to realize they are voting against their best interests?

What follows is the substance of an email letter that I sent to a bipartisan group of over 50 of my contacts on Monday, plus an important added endorsement of Harris at the end.  I crafted the communication to mainly focus on policies.   

In it I tried to explain why I believe that the 2024 election is the most important one since Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860 and express my opinion that it will determine if the United States will continue to be a democratic republic that is governed by the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law – or not. 

The following are the disturbing policies and plans being articulated by Mr. Trump and the GOP that I urged the recipients to consider before they vote this year.

One of my main fears is that Mr. Trump would withdraw from NATO during a second term and allow Russia’s President Putin to take control of Ukraine.  This would threaten the European Union, embolden China’s President Xi to annex Taiwan and dramatically weaken U.S. stature around the world. 

I also fear for U.S. national security.  During his first term, Mr. Trump was very cavalier with our nation’s secrets.  Then, upon leaving office, he carelessly took highly classified government documents to unsecured locations at his resort at Mar-A-Lago and he refused to return them when requested. 

My major concern, however, is for the U.S. rule of law.  Based on my legal experience and publicly available information, I am certain that an impartial jury would find Mr. Trump guilty of most of the remaining 50+ criminal charges against him.  The evidence is just that compelling.

Mr. Trump and many Republicans in Congress, however, are claiming his indictments were politically motivated. They are attacking judges that rule against him and lawyers prosecuting these cases, as if he is above the law.  And they are also calling for their Democratic opponents to be indicted and jailed. These actions seriously diminish the rule of law and weaken the foundations of our system of justice, which are critical to America’s stature as a nation and its economy.  And here is why.

Today, U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds are treated almost like gold around the world.  They comprise almost 60% of reserves held by foreign governments.  How did they achieve this lofty status?  Well, the U.S. has long been the world’s “safe harbor” for investment due to its rule of law and relatively fair and equitable legal system.  Without these two pillars of American justice the U.S. dollar would lose its stature, investors would demand much higher interest rates for U.S. Treasuries and the cost of financing our already too large national debt would soar. 

Most Republican politicians blame increased government spending for adding trillions to the deficits.  But tax cuts by Bush II and Mr. Trump have also added trillions to the national debt. And Mr. Trump’s plan to further cut taxes during a second term would force the government to borrow the funds to pay for it.  This is reckless and absolutely foolhardy.

Republican deficit hawks in Congress are eager to slash government spending.  But federal budget numbers show conclusively that the only way to achieve significant deficit reduction without increasing taxes – which they refuse to do – is to dramatically cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  This would devastate tens of millions of Americans and very few politicians will vote to do that.

Oh, but Mr. Trump claims he will solve many U.S. fiscal problems with high tariffs.  That is a patently ridiculous proposal, however, which would be a tax on consumers, significantly increase inflation and likely surge the deficits.

America’s population is aging and U.S. birthrates are declining.  But immigrants are adding to the birthrates and even undocumented residents are providing much needed labor to bolster our economy.  Yet, Mr. Trump has promised to deport millions of them and even decrease legal immigration.  The resulting labor shortages would also cause significant inflation, seriously damage the economy and increase deficits.  

No doubt, the recent higher inflation rates and so-called “woke” issues have concerned voters and many may not like VP Kamala Harris’ policies.  But she and the Democrats are solidly for maintaining our democracy and the rule of law, which Mr. Trump has consistently threatened.  That is why over 100 former GOP officials who served under Republican presidents since 1980 recently signed a letter endorsing Ms. Harris, stating that “any potential concerns” about her “pale in comparison to” those over Mr. Trump. 

If Mr. Trump is defeated in 2024, however, traditional, conservative Republicans will have a chance to regain control of the party and nominate their candidate in 2028.

So, I strongly recommend that you vote for Harris/Walz.  Because if Mr. Trump wins in November, I believe that his clearly stated agenda would seriously damage our national security, weaken our democratic institutions, and cripple the U.S. economy.   This would not only wreak havoc on our portfolios, it would also dramatically affect the security and the wellbeing of our children and grandchildren.  And I don’t believe any of us want to risk that.

Best regards,

When my email was sent on Monday, I was not aware that on Sunday, a bipartisan group of over 700 national security leaders – many top names in the field – had endorsed Harris in a letter “To the American People.”  The letter states that she “defends America’s democratic ideals,” while Trump “endangers” them.  You can read it here.

There has been a noticeable pattern in transitions of administrations during the past three decades that voters seem to forget.  Republican George W. Bush inherited a balanced budget and low unemployment from Democrat Bill Clinton in 2001.  He promptly cut taxes and then started two wars.  After eight years of his administration, Democrat Barack Obama inherited the Great Recession, with soaring deficits and horrific unemployment.  After eight years of the Obama administration, Republican Donald Trump inherited a growing economy and shrinking unemployment.

He promptly cut taxes too, of course, and generally enjoyed the continuing economic and unemployment trends until he badly handled the covid pandemic in early 2020 that reversed both.  The Trump administration gets credit for supercharging vaccine development.  But numerous Republican politicians and right-wing media, like Fox News, railed against the shots and mask mandates, while promoting bogus, ineffective, cures like hydroxychloroquine.  During a press conference, Trump even seriously suggested that people ingest bleach to kill the virus. 

It was President Joe Biden who was left with the task of getting the maximum number of shots in arms and taming the covid beast that was devouring our population and suppressing the economy.  Plus, he had to find ways to get over 6% of unemployed back to work, while trying to heal the wounds of a nation further divided by Trump’s lies about election fraud that fueled the January 6 attack on the Capitol.  And he has done a damn good job of it.

Unfortunately, millions of Americans don’t seem to understand how good they have it this year.  So, here is some of what I hope voters will learn about the Biden/Harris record before voting in November, most of which came from a Washington Post article. 

The U.S. economy now has 6 million more jobs than it had pre-pandemic.  Economic growth under Biden has made the U.S. economy the envy of the world for its robust post-pandemic surge.  And the recession that most economists were confidently predicting for 2024 hasn’t happened.

From 1970 through 2020, the U.S. economy experienced only 25 total months with an unemployment rate below 4%.  Biden oversaw 27 consecutive months at or below that low rate.  And Black unemployment reached an all-time low of 4.8% in April 2023.

Since the start of the Reagan administration in1981, the federal government had not made significant long-term investments in America ‘s future.  Biden changed that using federal dollars to invest in infrastructure, children, manufacturing, energy and technology.

Thanks in large part to Biden’s Chips and Science Act and his Inflation Reduction Act, factory construction has surged, boosting manufacturing jobs to the highest level since the Great Recession.  And business creation in the U.S. has reached its highest levels in decades, with 19 million new business applications since Jan. 2021, a huge increase from pre-pandemic. 

The number of Americans with health insurance reached an all-time high of 304 million people in 2022, roughly 92% of the population.  And Biden’s legislation capped the cost of insulin for seniors on Medicare at $35 and enabled Medicare to finally negotiate drug prices.

With skillful diplomacy, Biden strengthened America’s alliance system and rallied the West to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion.  And NATO added two strong new members in Sweden and Finland.  In the Indo-Pacific region, he organized a bulwark against China with cooperation from Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and others.  Surveys suggest that the U.S. and Biden are viewed much more favorably by most countries due to these efforts.

Republicans have continuously attacked Biden for allowing thousands of undocumented immigrants to enter through the southern border.  Yet, after Biden backed the strongest border legislation ever passed by the Senate, Trump had his supporters in the House kill it.

While it is true that Biden’s landmark legislation increased the federal debt, he still added a lot less than Trump.  Both administrations enacted huge emergency spending that the pandemic required, but Trump approved $4.8 trillion in non-covid debt, while Biden accounted for $2.2 trillion.  Trump’s contribution came mainly from his 2017 tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which added more red ink than Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure bill, which invested in America’s future.

A leader gets pummeled for negative things that occur during their term, like inflation and the price of oil, even if they had very little control over them.  But rarely do they get credit for what didn’t happen on their watch.  So, Biden got blamed for higher prices, even though wages were also up significantly.  But he has gotten almost no credit for helping prevent a recession, which would have surged unemployment and made millions of Americans a lot poorer.

As he closes out his political career, Biden’s legacy will be that he restored the presidency to a position of dignity and sanity that is recognized around the world and that he made the painful decision to withdraw his candidacy for a second term to help ensure that the dangerous, anti-democratic rhetoric and behavior that preceded him doesn’t succeed him in 2025. 

Vice President Kamala Harris deserves credit for being President Biden’s active partner in restoring America’s stature in the world and making the U.S. economy the unquestioned post-pandemic leader.  Now, it is up to all democracy-loving Americans to strongly support her so that Trump doesn’t inherit the excellent results from the Biden administration that Republicans will quickly find a way to screw up.

Half a lifetime ago I enrolled in a Dale Carnegie course to improve my comfort level when speaking to professional groups.  I wasn’t looking for philosophy, but I received a heavy dose of it over the following several weeks.   When I jokingly tried to impart some of this “wisdom” to our teenaged daughters, like, “Act enthusiastic and you’ll be enthusiastic,” they would frequently throw a couch pillow at me.

Seriously though, I found that Dale’s homilies had some merit.  One dwells in the recesses of my mind and appears during troubling times — like right now.  In essence, it councils that a worrier should imagine the worst that could happen in a given situation, make a plan for coping with that outcome and then stop stressing out about it.  I think it is part of Carnegie’s “Stop Worrying and Start Living” advice.

No one has an accurate crystal ball, of course, and typically the terrible things we imagine might happen rarely come to pass.  Yet, we buy insurance for home and autos and keep a fire extinguisher handy in the house just in case.  Still, the pressing question today is – what should we be doing about protecting our future in this period of stress and uncertainty?

Well, I am writing checks to candidates who I believe will provide the best outcome in 2025 and I will vote for those that are on my ballot.  Above all though, I am trying to remain positive and hopeful.  The contest for the presidency is far from over and with President Biden’s decision to exit the race, Trump will be the old guy.  Yes, there is only so much individuals can do to defeat him, but everything we can do will help.

But if our efforts fail and Trump is elected in November – this is my best advice.  Identify those things you can control and carefully manage them to protect yourself and your family.  Think of what you would have done in July 2007 if you had known when the Great Recession would start and what economic problems it would cause.  And pay attention to what experts are predicting if Trump is successful with his agenda in 2025 and beyond. 

A June letter by 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists is worth reading.  They begin by stating that they are “deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy.”  They stress that the rule of law, economic and political certainty and stable relationships with other countries are among the most important determinants of economic success.  Their bottom line is that a second Trump term would exacerbate inflation, have a negative impact on the U.S.’s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.’s domestic economy.  Oh my!

This letter did not detail the Trump proposals that would cause the problems they fear, but other economists have warned against his plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, raise tariffs by 10% across the board and cut taxes. 

A good way to start a plan is with a financial advisor and a review of your investments, particularly bond holdings.  Ask if your portfolio is adequately prepared for the higher inflation and interest rates that economists say could occur.  Remember, even during the Great Depression of the 1930s, many companies did reasonably well, including Coca Cola and Proctor & Gamble.  Food and beverage companies in general prospered, along with those providing other consumer necessities.

A fire proof and water proof safe is nice to have in your home.  One that will hold 1.5 cubic feet of important documents and valuables costs less than $100 and weighs around 30 pounds.  Some can be bolted to a wall to for added security. 

It is advisable to have some cash for an emergency, which can be kept in a home safe.  The amount will depend on what makes you comfortable, perhaps enough to cover most expenses for two weeks.  A global computer glitch caused by software firm CrowdStrike led to widespread outages affecting airlines, banks, and media outlets late last Thursday and Friday morning.  Our society is almost totally dependent on computers and the Internet.  If they fail to work for whatever reason, plastic cards could be temporarily worthless. 

During the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009, right-wing media was spreading such wild conspiracy theories about President Obama that several conservative friends took some rather extreme actions to protect their assets.  Many bought large quantities of gold.  One asked my advice about which gun to buy for his eighty-year-old wife.  It was mindboggling. 

We don’t know what Trump 02 might do, regardless of what he may have said.  He simply lies about everything and a lot will depend on which party controls Congress in 2025.  Things might not be as bad as we suspect – or – they could be worse.  But for sure, do not believe anyone who tells you, “Don’t worry, everything will be just fine.”  

I’m not suggesting that anyone take extreme measures.  But I am confident that those who carefully plan for the worst will feel more secure and be better prepared to cope with whatever happens in November.

Ask anyone about infrastructure and they will probably mention roads and bridges.  There is a broader definition, however, that describes an asset as infrastructure according to its contribution to the economy.  I believe this includes human capital – the knowledge, skills and experience of American workers. 

Congress finally approved some concrete and steel projects and President Biden eagerly signed his Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in November 2021.  Although much more investment like this is needed, this legislation is critically important.  It provides $1.2 trillion in funding to improve America’s roads, bridges, rail systems, airports and ports.  No question, but for the federal government, U.S. infrastructure improvements would be woefully underfunded.  Most states simply can’t afford to pay for them.

Still, I believe most Americans agree that these improvements were an appropriate use of their tax dollars and so should the leaders of all companies that do business in the U.S.  They will make life better for all U.S. residents and help businesses be more efficient and profitable.  Even some of the 200 House Republicans that voted against this law attempted to take credit for the projects it funded in their districts. 

I keep wondering though, why was it so difficult to get this quite modest but greatly needed bill passed and why has it been such a monumental task for decades to enact legislation to improve America’s human infrastructure?  And why isn’t our military a great example of the value for these investments.

Funding the Department of Defense is always a high priority for Congress, so it probably has the best maintained infrastructure the nation can provide.  This includes the Pentagon’s schools for 66,000 children of military families, which may be the nation’s best, according to a 2023 New York Times article.  It explains why: They are “well-funded, socioeconomically and racially integrated, and have a centralized structure that is not subject to the whims of school boards or mayors.”  As evidence it cites the fact that these schools outscored every other jurisdiction in the nation in math and reading in 2022.

In addition, these students are probably better fed than millions of public-school children. Plus, at least one parent is working and the military provides the family with housing and medical care.  Basic human needs like these are crucial for children to learn and develop.   

The National School Lunch Program (NSLP), which was enacted in 1946, recognized this fact.  It provides free lunches for students from households with incomes at or below 130% of the federal poverty level and reduced priced lunches for students from households earning between 130% and 185% of the poverty level.  Over 60% (30+ million) of all public-school children received these benefits in fiscal year 2022, according to USAFacts, a nonpartisan organization. 

If you think these statistics indicate that many students are poorly fed when not in school, you are correct.  

Still, earlier this year, 15 GOP governors refused to take advantage of a new, federal bipartisan summer program that would provide states with $2.5 billion in funding for healthier food options that will help 21 million low-income children when school isn’t in session.  Among these are Texas and Florida, the second and third most populous states.  Iowa governor Kim Reynolds cited an epidemic of childhood obesity as the reason her state would not participate, which I think is beyond ludicrous.

I believe red state resistance to federal programs like this is a significant reason why children are more likely to live in poverty in America than in most of our peer countries.  In fact, data analyzed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for 2022 shows that American children under 18 are almost twice as likely to grow up in poverty as those in Germany, more than twice as likely as children in Canada and over three times more likely than children in Norway.  Its analysis also reveals that the U.S has child poverty levels like Chile and Mexico, which should embarrass our Congress.

To me, it makes perfect sense to lift people out of poverty, and strong evidence that doing so could reduce or improve the effectiveness of federal and state spending in the long term is provided by the following analyses.

An April 2020 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonpartisan organization, found that children who received food stamps under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were more likely in later life to be healthier, better educated, employed, earn higher incomes, be more self-sufficient and less likely to be incarcerated.   These benefits not only enhance the quality of life for these individuals, they reduce the burden of society (government) to care for them.  

A July 2023 report by the Congressional Budget Office states that Medicaid enrollment during childhood has been shown to increase earnings in adulthood.  Its research estimates that the long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays. 

All my research on federal budgets and programs leads me to conclude that shrinking the federal government and underfunding investments in the social safety net and America’s human infrastructure to offset the cost of tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy are shortsighted, disastrous policies.  They will be detrimental to the future of all Americans and to the U.S. economy, which will cause even more voters to believe empty populist promises and question capitalism and democracy.

Some politicians act as if the military makes the U.S. the most powerful country in the world, but that is just part of America’s strength.  China reportedly has around 700,000 more active-duty soldiers and Russia’s military is about the same size as ours.  There are other qualities, however, that put this nation in a position of power that I believe are much more important – and I’ll get to that. 

But first, let’s look back to the end of World War II when the United States had become the world’s only true superpower.  Many European and Asian nations were in ruins due to the war, with their cities and manufacturing capabilities destroyed, particularly the defeated nations of Germany and Japan.  China was still a backward third-world country in 1945, struggling with a civil war.  The Soviet Union would become a lesser superpower in time, primarily because of its natural resources, its military and its nuclear weapons.    

Other than the tragic loss of over 400,000 lives, the major negative effect the war had on America was the massive deficit spending required to fund it.  But on the plus side, the U.S. manufacturing capability was in great shape, as was its infrastructure, much of which had been enhanced by President Franklin Roosevelt’s pre-war New Deal.  This nation was enjoying a stable government (which controlled most of the world’s gold), a productive economy and a strong currency, the all-mighty U.S. dollar.  Even before the war ended, these factors led to the critically important Bretton Woods Agreement in July 1944, named for the small resort town in New Hampshire where it was signed by 44 nations.

This agreement formed the structure of a new financial system for the global economy.  It also established the U.S. dollar as the “international reserve currency,” a position that it holds to this day.  My guess is that most members of Congress are not aware of the Bretton Woods Agreement, nor do I believe they understand all the benefits of our dollar’s status.

Why is the U.S. dollar so important?  Well, other countries treat it and dollar denominated securities (U.S. Treasury bonds, for example) almost like gold.   In fact, central banks in nations around the world held around 59% of their reserves (savings) in U.S. dollars or U.S. government debt instruments in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. 

High demand for the dollar enables the United States to borrow at much lower rates than other countries and more easily finance deficit spending.  American companies also have an advantage because they can conduct business in dollars without having to pay the costs of converting into other currencies.

Ever wonder why our government can impose sanctions on other nations, like Iran and Russia?  There are numerous ways, but one is because the Bretton Woods Agreement effectively gave the U.S. power over the international financial system.  The U.S. Treasury Department regulates access to and use of the U.S. dollar, which is the currency used for most international transactions, like crude oil, for example.  That is one reason why Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s President Xi, among other authoritarian regimes, want to end the global reliance on dollars.  And even some U.S. allies complain about the dollar’s dominant status.

Oh, but whenever there is a global economic crisis or troubling times, frightened foreign investors are eager to invest in the U.S., buying dollars and U.S. Treasuries.  Like sailors in a storm, they rush to the safest harbor.  Even in good times, foreigners own around 40% of U.S. corporate stocks, according to the Tax Policy Center and Federal Reserve data. 

A May article by the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University summarizes why U.S. assets are so attractive.  Of course, it emphasizes the importance of the U.S. credit rating, its dollar, the nation’s large, highly productive economy and the safety and liquidity of U.S. Treasury securities.  But I believe the following two criteria also cited in this article correctly identify what truly forms the heart and soul of U.S. power, the U.S. Constitution and the system of government it established:

Independent institutions:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve (central bank) that underpins the U.S. economy and the financial system is credible and politically independent.

• The U.S. Treasury Department is staffed by professional career civil servants and finance savvy political appointees.

Legal & political stability:

• The American legal system is relatively fair and equitable (the rule of law prevails). 

• The U.S. has conducted over two centuries of mostly unblemished, regular elections. 

• The professional U.S. bureaucracy produces credible and highly respected data, particularly economic.

• The civilian controlled military does not get directly involved in American politics.

I believe the foregoing clarifies that democracy is what makes our nation powerful and that the U.S. dollar’s strength and status depend on it.  I am also confident that these criteria have allowed American capitalism to function as it has for over two centuries.

What I fear, however, is that many voters – including some friends who don’t read my posts – lack a clear understanding of what makes America great and what is at stake in November’s election.  So, in hopes that what I write will reach some of them, my blogs this summer will focus on information that I believe voters should consider before November’s election.  Hopefully, more of them will come to understand that nothing is more important than preserving U.S. democracy.