From the Center

Don’t worry; this title doesn’t have religious or apocalyptic connotations; it actually refers to a city.  But I’ll get to that later.

My failure to post a blog for over a month hasn’t been for lack of important subjects to discuss.  Oh no – it’s because the 21-day, South America cruise (Lima to Buenos Aries) we booked for November 2020 finally sailed.  I’m very happy, however, that the somewhat upbeat closing about the survival of democracy in my November 6 blog was supported by the 2022 midterm elections.  I learned to have faith in Americans to eventually make the right decisions (on juries) during my years managing the defense of high potential liability litigation and I hope that I never lose it.

It would be impossible to share all the great experiences my wife and I enjoyed during our cruising adventure, but I thought my readers might find some of them interesting.  Please keep in mind, I am not a great photographer and my best camera is my phone, but the many scenes presented were not hard to capture.

One of our most memorable experiences sailing the Pacific Ocean down the coast of Chile was viewing the distant snowcapped volcanic mountains of the Andes from Puerto Montt. 

The following day in Patagonia, we hiked through a dense forest to a scenic waterfall.  After another 30 minutes we left the trail for a pisco – national drink – cocktail (or two) at a pavilion overlooking a beautiful lake.  A couple entertained us by doing traditional dances around a open pit wood fire where small goat carcasses were roasting.  We weren’t able to sample the results.

Next was the Amalia Glacier and other spectacular glaciers along the Chilian fiords.  There were so many that it was hard to decide which pictures to include.  First though, is a picture that doesn’t do justice to the rough seas and 50 MPH wind gusts we encountered before entering the relatively quiet waters of the fiords.

The Amalia glacier.  Too bad it was a cloudy day.

Flowing out of this glacier along the fiords was a water fall hundreds of feet high. 

The surrounding mountains with glacial runoff were spectacular too.

After a stop at Punta Arenas, Chile, which is on the strait of Magellan, the ship docked at Ushuaia, Argentina, the southernmost city on the planet and why it came to be called the, “End of the World.”  The cruise ship that was hit by a rogue wave in the ocean to the south of Cape Horn was already docked at Ushuaia when we arrived.  As you may have read, that resulted in the death of a 62-year-old woman and damage to the ship.  Ushuaia is at latitude -54.8 in the south.   By comparison, Anchorage, Alaska is at latitude 61.2 in the north.  This picture from gettyimages is better than I could take and shows a lot more snow on the mountains around Ushuaia than in the photos I took. 

We had to walk 500 yards down the pier in strong winds and heavy rain from where the ship was docked to a large 100+ person catamaran and the start of our tour.  We experienced rough seas over 45 minutes to reach some small rocky islands where there was a lighthouse, a pod of hundreds of seals and even more hundreds of nesting cormorants.  That was only the first part of our day.    The low clouds and rain early in the day made for poor quality photos.  The first is the other catamaran on this tour.

The bodies of the seals blend with the rocks they are laying on.

The birds were nesting in a small valley, perhaps for protection from the strong winds.

Next, we boarded buses and rode for almost two hours through the Tierra del Fuego National Park. 

We eventually boarded a very narrow train for the ride back down closer to the city and then rode another bus to the dock.  It was a long, but quite interesting day.

We didn’t actually sail around Cape Horn, the seas were too rough.  So, our ship took a route to the Atlantic Ocean (Beagle Channel) between the Argentine mainland and several islands north of the Cape and cruised for a day over quite rough seas to Stanley, Falkland Islands.  It occurred to me that cruising in this area near Cape Horn is almost as rough as the ups and downs of U.S. politics.

The Falkland Islands were well worth the visit, but I will cover that and the rest of our cruise with my next blog.  In case I don’t get this done during next week, I will take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah and a wonderful holiday whatever you are celebrating.  May all have a prosperous and productive New Year. 

Typical State Legislature – mprnews.org

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis was referring to the then-48 states when he coined the phrase “laboratories of democracy.”  They were the focus of his dissent in a 1932 case that involved federalism (states’ rights) and the 14^th Amendment to the Constitution.  Justice Brandeis was arguing that states should be free to “try novel social and economic experiments” without federal intervention.  

Republicans totally agree with Brandeis and federalism.  That’s why they advocate for lower taxes, limited federal government, fewer regulations and significantly less federal spending.  Lately, some Republicans are even seriously talking about cutting Medicare and Social security benefits to reduce spending.  Numerous GOP politicians have also called for eliminating entire federal agencies, like the Department of Education.  They want to transfer primary responsibility for environmental protection, welfare and other federal programs to the states. 

Well, I’ve been wondering how the Republican laboratories of democracy would cope with these added burdens.  So, let’s take look.

Education is the key to a higher paying job.

The federal government subsidizes education in all states.  Still, seven of the 10 with the poorest education systems in 2022 are GOP-controlled, according to a report on Scholaroo.com.  To be fair, California, probably the most liberal state in the nation, has the seventh worst education system.  There are no solid red states with the best education systems in the top 10.

Good health means better quality of life.

Uncle Sam also provides large subsidies to the states for health care.  Yet, all 10 of the states with the poorest health care systems in 2022 are solidly red, according to WalletHub, a financial services website that publishes research I frequently use.  Six of these states have refused to expand Medicaid under The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).    

America’s greatest asset is its youth.

Based on 16 key metrics, nine of the 10 states in 2022 with the most at-risk youth are Republican-controlled, according to WalletHub.  These are the young people who are poorly educated, under employed or unemployed and are in poor physical and/or mental health.  There are no solidly red states among the 10 with the least at-risk youth. 

Strong economies boost state budgets. 

Among the 10 states with the poorest economies in 2022, according to WalletHub, eight are GOP-Controlled.  There are some red states with large economies too, particularly Texas and Florida, but neither is among the mostly blue states with the top 10 economies. 

“Life is precious!”

That’s what one of my relatives used to say.  “I’ve got plenty of money,” he would tell me, although his only income was Social Security, “I just need to find a way to stay alive.”  Well, he was over 86 when he passed and his example helps highlight the differences in life expectancies among the states in 2022.  The 10 that have the shortest – 76.9 down to 74.4 years – are all solidly Republican, according to 24/7 Wall St.  The 10 with the longest, with the top being 80.9 years (83.9 for women), are mostly blue, with one or perhaps two being purple.

States, counties and cities are responsible for most public services.

WalletHub evaluated the quality of the services that residents receive in each of the 50 states within five categories, education, health, safety, the economy and infrastructure & pollution.  Nine of the 10 states whose services scored the lowest in 2022 are GOP-controlled. 

States and local governments are responsible for crime control.

Nine of the states with the highest rates of violent crime in 2020 have Republican-controlled legislatures, according to a recent report on USAFacts.org, which was based on the most recent statistics available from the FBI.

All States Depend heavily on federal funding.

Federal dollars typically average between 30 and 32% of yearly state revenues.  In budgets of some poorer– mostly red – states, federal dollars are over 40% of revenues, according to the Tax Foundation.  Of the 10 states most dependent on federal government support in 2022, nine are solidly Republican, according to WalletHub. 

Budgets for all states except Vermont must balance.  Consequently, their legislatures must significantly raise taxes or dramatically cut services if revenues fall short of budgeted spending due to reductions in federal support, or whatever reason. 

What does all this mean?

Of course, the ideology of the party that controls the state government, although quite significant, isn’t the only reason why socioeconomic conditions differ from state to state.  It is clear to me, however, that if the GOP’s policies of cutting taxes, enfeebling federal agencies and slashing spending were to ever become law, Republican-controlled states and Republican voters would suffer the most.  

Finally, this is just one reason why I don’t believe the GOP will ever succeed in replacing American democracy with a one-party government.  Voters would soon come to realize that Republican policies mostly benefit wealthy Americans and don’t really work them.  Sure, many corporate leaders favor lower taxes and fewer regulations but statistics show that the economy does better under Democratic presidents.  Besides, I don’t believe the titans of industry will want a loser, ignoramus like Donald Trump or a right-wing blowhard like Ron DeSantis dictating what they can or can’t do.  

Yes, MAGA Republicans will create chaos and dysfunction in Washington, for sure.  But I don’t believe their attempts to override free and fair elections and/or undermine the rule of law will ever succeed.

The November election is drawing near and early voting has already commenced in some states.  Still, I wonder how many voters truly understand what will result if Republicans control either chamber of Congress next year.  I wrote about this possibility in March but now seems like a good time to take another look.  Unfortunately, the scenario hasn’t improved.

The House of Representatives is predicted to turn red come January, and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) currently has the best chance be the speaker.  Over the past several years he has shown time and again that he’s not very smart nor is he a strong leader with wide support among his caucus.  Consequently, McCarthy has been forced to curry favor with the hard-right members of the Freedom Caucus and the Republican Study Committee.  He knows that without their approval his candidacy for the top job in the House is doomed.

There are already numerous radical members of these two groups.  The Republicans who manage to flip House seats in November to secure a GOP majority will add even more extremists to their ranks.  Most of them are loyalists of former president Trump who believe the 2020 election was stolen from him.  If you remember the Tea Party Republicans who caused chaos when they took control of the House in 2011 and the Freedom Caucus members that savaged then-speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and drove him out of Congress in 2015, these miscreants will make them look like choir boys and girls.

What are their goals?  Well, generally, they want to stifle the Democratic agenda, roll back parts of what President Biden has accomplished, investigate the president and his administration unmercifully, cut social safety net benefits and rehabilitate former president Trump.  Mostly though, they will cause total dysfunction, weaken the nation and drive Congress’ approval rating into single digits.

Here is just a small sample of what some Republicans have in mind if they get control:

Recently, McCarthy said there will not be a “blank check to Ukraine.”  (Russia, are you listening?)  He has also threatened to risk a catastrophic default on the nation’s debt by using a debt limit increase as leverage to gain concessions from Biden, possibly on reducing Medicare, Social Security and food stamp benefits.  

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told members at a conservative confab earlier this year that GOP investigations would help “frame” the 2024 race, according to Politico, and that Republicans needed to make sure Trump wins another term.  If he becomes chair of the powerful House Judiciary Committee, he wants to attack the DOJ and FBI for conducting the search of Trump’s Mar-A-Lago home and will likely threaten steep cuts to their budgets.  Jordan’s objective will be to discourage further investigations of the January 6 attack on the Capitol and prevent indictments of Trump and other high-level masterminds of that insurrection.

Jordan’s influence with the Republican base gives him significant sway with McCarthy, who is desperate to be the speaker.  The minority leader is also beholden to other popular members, including freshman Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).  McCarthy will not only restore the committee assignments she lost in 2021, he promised to give her higher level positions.

So, who is this lady from a rural, northwest Georgia district who reportedly is being considered as Trump’s running mate in 2024?

Well, Ms. Greene is an outspoken Trump loyalist whose many inflammatory Facebook posts and other actions prior to her 2020 election caused Democrats to remove her from committee assignments in February 2021.  Among those were suggestions that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other prominent Democrats should be executed, along with FBI agents who were accused of being part of the anti-Trump “deep state.”  Greene had also promoted QAnon conspiracy theories and questioned if deadly school shootings were staged.  Oh, and she had shared videos with anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim content.  Clearly, Greene checks all the boxes of a far-right extremist.

According to Robert Draper’s October 17, NYT article “The Problem of Margorie Taylor Greene”, she told him, “My style would be a lot more aggressive,” referring to McCarthy.  Greene added that he would have little choice but to adopt her “more aggressive” approach in attacking Biden.  “I think that to be the best speaker of the House and to please the base, he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway,” she predicted, “in a flat, unemotional voice,” according to Draper. “And if he doesn’t, they’re [the base] going to be very unhappy about it. —- And that’s not in any way a threat at all.  I just think that’s reality.” 

Like Trump, Ms. Greene not only lies with ease and frequency, she learned that garnering the enthusiastic support of the ultra-conservative base gives her a commanding position in the GOP.  So, she describes herself as a Christian nationalist and has continuously voiced the most extreme of the far-right positions on guns, abortion, transgender youth, immigration, etc., according to Draper’s article.   Undoubtedly, Greene will be pushing McCarthy to champion these radical positions too.

There are many serious threats facing the United States today, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, plus pandemics and the deleterious effects of climate change.  Still, I believe the menace that puts the future of our democratic republic in the most peril is the Republican Party.

There can be no doubt, democracy truly is on the ballot in 2022. 

Former president Donald Trump gave life appointments to 226 judges in the three major levels of the federal court system, the district courts, the circuit courts of appeal and the Supreme Court.  He was accused of outsourcing the process to the ultra-conservative Federalist Society, which is a 501(c)(3) tax exempt nonprofit formed during Ronald Reagan’s first term.  Don McGahn, Trump’s White House counsel and candidate selection czar, reportedly joked that it had actually been “insourced” because he had been a member of that organization since law school.

It appears that a recommendation by, or membership in, the Federalist Society is a prerequisite for Republican judicial appointees.  In fact, the six conservative Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade are all Society members.  So is Trump appointed Florida federal judge Aileen Cannon.  Her decision granting Trump’s request for a special master to review documents he had stolen from the government has been roundly criticized by legal experts.

I believe there is no doubt that most, if not all, of the federal judges appointed by Republican presidents since Reagan was first elected were strong states’ rights advocates (federalists) and many were members of the Federalist Society, including around half of President George W. Bush’s appointees, according to Politico.

So, what is the purpose of the Federalist Society and why is it such a powerhouse in today’s political environment?  Well, as stated on its website, it’s an organization of over 70,000 lawyers, law students and scholars who believe that individual citizens can make the best choices for themselves and society.  I guess this just applies to men because many of its members are strong anti-abortion activists and certainly not “pro-choice.”  Generally, however, “rugged individualist” phrases like this imply an advocacy for limited government and an opposition to government social safety net programs, like Social Security and Medicare. 

Its website also advises that the Society is a group of conservatives and libertarians whose mission is to reform the current legal order.   Its members believe that the duty of the judiciary is to say what the law is – not what it should be.  This means, among other things, that they promote jurists (originalists) who will strictly interpret the Constitution in accordance with this Society tenet. 

Donors to the Federalist Society have the option to remain anonymous but reports indicate that it is strongly backed by many large corporations and wealthy donors due to its support for lower taxes, limited federal regulations, free market capitalism and likeminded conservative federal judges. 

Well, there has been a lot focus on federal judges this year, particularly those on the U.S. Supreme Court.  With lifetime appointments, they can have a much greater influence on American society than the presidents who appointed them.  Ultra-conservative Justice Clarence Thomas, for example, was appointed by one-term president George H. W. Bush in 1991.  He is the longest serving Justice and could serve for another decade.  The three conservative justices appointed by Trump during his one term could serve two to three decades.

The Federalist Society influence on Republican presidents and the federal judiciary for the past four decades makes it – in my opinion – the most powerful right-wing organization in the United States.  For example, according to an article in Britannica, the five conservative Supreme Court justices adopted the Society’s broad interpretation of the Constitution’s right to freedom of speech in the Citizens United v. FEC (2010) case when they ruled that campaign finance laws could not restrict corporate spending on independent political advertising.  That decision opened the floodgates of money in politics, much of it from shadowy sources.

Yet, the Federalist Society’s tremendous power in American politics is virtually unknown to many, if not most, voters.  And very few have ever heard of its co-chair, Leonard Leo, a staunch social conservative lawyer and religious freedom advocate who has served the organization for more than 25 years. 

Leo controls Marble Freedom Trust, a 501(c)(4) nonprofit that can use dark money from anonymous donors to promote conservative causes and Republican candidates.  Last year, the Trust received a $1.6 billion – yes, billion – donation of Tripp Lite stock from the company’s owner, Chicago billionaire Barre Seid – which it later sold.  This is likely the largest ever publicly known contribution to a politically focused entity, according to a recent New York Times article.  Obviously, Marble Freedom Trust, the Federalist Society’s alter ego, has lots of resources to influence elections in 2022 and 2024.

Liberals founded an organization in 2001 called the American Constitution Society that has similar purposes as the Federalist Society.  Very few voters have ever heard of it, however, and none of its judges are on federal benches, according to a Politico article.  Although I didn’t find current numbers on how well it is funded, past data indicates the ACS has nowhere near the financial resources of the Federalist Society.

Unfortunately, there is no apparent clear path to counter the oppressive control the Federalist Society has on the nation – and our lives – with the vast sums of money its surrogates wield.  Certainly, democracy-loving Americans should support congressional candidates who seek to nullify the effects of the Citizens United decision.

However it is accomplished though – we the people must find a way to put a lid on the enormous sums of money infecting American politics; that may be the only way to neutralize special interest organizations like the Federalist Society.

Conservative justices on the U.S. Supreme Court are attempting to remake the United States with their states’ rights agenda, particularly Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.  Striking down Roe v. Wade and eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion is just one of their numerous decisions that limit the rights of we the people.  And they aren’t finished yet.

The vast majority of Republicans have been clamoring for the end of Roe for decades and now they’ve finally succeeded.  I’ve frequently opined, however, that one of the major reasons the GOP has been able to remain a viable political party is that Republicans have failed to get their policies enacted into law.  I know, that seems counter intuitive – but allow me to explain.

Recent polls indicate that most voters opposed overturning Roe.  Even in his concurrence, Chief Justice Roberts stated that the Court was going too far with this decision.  As a result, pundits who were certain that Republicans would easily take control of both the U.S. House and the Senate in November began hedging their bets and here’s a good indication of why. 

Fearful Republican candidates are suddenly moderating their previously strong pro-life positions.  In a recent Twitter ad, for example, far-right Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters backtracked on his earlier tough anti-abortion rhetoric.  He also rewrote, or scrubbed five of the six positions opposing abortion on his website.  Gone are “I am 100% pro-life” and his support for a “federal personhood law (ideally a Constitutional amendment),” according to an NBC News article.  

Masters has also changed his position on Social Security.  During a candidate forum in June, he stated, “[M]aybe we should privatize Social Security.  Get the government out of it,” according to an article in the Arizona Republic.  Then, after he won the primary, he did a total about face, claiming, “I do not want to privatize Social Security.” Masters even suggested that payments under the current system should be increased.

Believe it or not, at least two incumbent Republican senators have also attacked the Social Security system, which for decades has been considered the “third rail of politics.”  You know, like the power source of some electric railroad systems, if you touch it, you’re dead.  That hasn’t deterred GOP Sens. Ron Johnson (Wis.) and Rick Scott (Fla.). 

Johnson has advocated for making both Social Security and Medicare discretionary programs, meaning they would be subject to yearly congressional appropriations, instead of guaranteed benefits as they are today.

Scott’s 11 Point Plan to Rescue America proposes that all federal legislation, including Social Security and Medicare, sunset in five years.  He states, “If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.”  Oh, how Republicans would love an opportunity to rework and weaken these critical programs for seniors.

But folks, reproductive rights, Social Security and Medicare are just several of the many issues where the GOP is on the wrong side of voter sentiment.  This has been true for decades but, curiously, the party never seems to be able to pass the legislation that would implement their major policies, except for tax cuts, mainly for corporations and the wealthy.   

To see what the GOP is proposing currently, I reviewed the 112-page, 2023-2032 budget proposal – Blueprint to Save America – from the House Republican Study Committee (RSC), an organization to which most GOP House members belong.  Here are its most significant legislative goals, as compared to the Congressional Budget Office 10-year projection of revenues and expenditures under current law.

The RSC Budget proposes:

• Cutting tax revenue by $3.9 trillion and requiring a supermajority vote in the House to raise taxes.

• Repealing the estate tax (which only applies to the wealthiest taxpayers).

• Declaring that human life begins at conception.

• Abolishing most gun controls and prohibiting the keeping of records on gun sales.

• Allowing tax exempt religious organizations to participate in politics.

• Finishing Trump’s border wall.

• Privatizing Medicare by providing insurance premium support subsidies to seniors.

• Providing block grants to states to cover Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs.

• Adopting a federal balanced budget amendment to the Constitution.

I always get some grumbles when I include too many number details, so, I’ll just summarize that the RSC budget would slash federal spending by almost $17 trillion (23%) over the next 10 fiscal years.  The lion’s share of this would significantly reduce spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other mandatory spending programs, virtually decimating these benefits. 

Actually though, there’s nothing new about Republican desires to cut taxes and slash federal spending; it’s been their stated agenda since before Ronald Reagan’s presidency.  But here’s the thing.  Even with a Republican president and control of Congress they’ve only seriously tried to accomplish a small fraction of it.

Why?  Well, I believe GOP election fears after they were successful in getting Roe overturned gives us the answer.  Republicans know that if they even attempted to get a few main items of their radical policy positions enacted, they would be removed from office in droves come the next election. 

Their “carrot on a stick” budget proposals, however, keep hopeful conservatives eagerly voting for them. Ah, but their failures to get them enacted keeps millions of moderates from voting against them.  That enables Republicans to employ their main strategy for winning – spreading misinformation and outright lies about the Democrats and their agenda.  Clever, huh?

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that President Biden signed last week was passed without a single Republican vote.  Major legislation like this is quite rare in an election year.  It was a great cap, however, to a year and a half of legislative accomplishments by the Biden administration and a Congress that Democrats just barely control.  Some even received bipartisan support, including last year’s job creating infrastructure bill, the first gun safety law in decades, and the critical CHIPS Act, which bolsters scientific research and domestic semiconductor production.

But here’s what makes several of these enactments so important.  The coronavirus pandemic shed a glaring light on a weakness that globalization has slowly caused over the past several decades: America is far too dependent on certain raw materials and products that are primarily produced in foreign countries.  This is particularly true of China, which is allied with Russa and flexing its economic and military muscles across the globe. 

Consequently, the United States can no longer depend on this communist nation as a reliable source of imports that are needed for its economy, the health of its citizens or its national security.  That’s why the CHIPS Act is an important step toward American independence in semiconductors and other technology.  The IRA will also lessen U.S. dependence on China.  It makes huge investments to promote domestic battery production, which will reduce the cost of electric vehicles.  Both will result in more high paying jobs and enhanced national security.  I call these win/win legislative achievements.

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During a 1952 Presidential campaign speech, Illinois’ Democratic Governor Adlai Stevenson reportedly said, “If they [the Republicans] will stop telling lies about the Democrats, we will stop telling the truth about them.”  I’m sure this line was good for uproarious laughter at the time, but GOP lies are no longer funny.  All politicians shade the truth but Republicans have turned lying into an art form.  Misinformation is their strategy to deflect from the fact that the GOP has very few sound policies that are popular with voters.  Although they have been quite successful with it, their lies have frequently put people’s lives in danger.   Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley’s recent attack on the Internal Revenue Service is an excellent example.

There was a time when the 89-year-old Grassley was known as a reasonable, policy minded legislator.  Now, however, he apparently feels compelled to pander to a Republican base that has grown ever more radical over the past two decades.  His comments about the IRA’s $80 billion additional funding for the Internal Revenue Service are beyond shocking.  This Act will provide for up to 87,000 additional IRS employees over 10 years.  Grassley ludicrously claimed, however, that this will create, “a strike force that goes in with AK-15s (sic.) already loaded, ready to shoot some small business person in Iowa” because, “they aren’t paying their fair share” in taxes. 

For the record, one of the many government damaging tactics the GOP has employed over the years is to drastically cut funding for the IRS.  This not only decreased the number of audits on wealthy taxpayers, it prevented the service from updating its ancient computer software and caused in a huge backlog of unprocessed paper returns.  The added funding is not to badger small businesses; it’s to catch rich tax cheats and make the IRS more efficient.  The rhetoric used by Grassley and numerous other Republicans, however, is not only false, it puts the lives of IRS employees at risk.

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Former president Trump made one of his most damaging decisions in 2018 when he unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal that President Obama and five other world leaders inked with Iran. As predicted, this gave Iranian hardliners the greenlight to increase that nation’s capability to make a bomb.  Since his inauguration, however, President Biden has been attempting to resurrect that agreement to its 2017 status, when, according to United Nations’ inspectors, Iran was in compliance.  It won’t be easy though; he is facing strong opposition from the GOP.

Remember, in March 2015, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress to warn that Obama’s agreement with Iran would pave the way to an Iranian nuclear weapon.  Days later, 47 Republican Senators signed an open letter intended to scuddle the deal.  In it, they issued an unprecedented warning to Iran that Obama lacked the authority to sign it. 

I’ve always wondered, however, even if the 2015 agreement wasn’t everything they wanted, what was the Republican alternative – war with Iran?   That would be a long, bloody conflict with no winners.  The cost in lives loss and military expenditures would be unimaginable.  The Islamic Republic is not like Iraq, which was a military pushover; Iran is much more formidable, with almost twice the population and nearly four times the land area, much of which is mountainous. 

Regardless, 49 GOP Senators signed a statement last March, stating that, “Republicans will do everything in our power to reverse” a Biden negotiated agreement.  Then in May, the Times of Israel reported that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was 18 times the 2015 deal limit and that Iranians could build a bomb within weeks.  So again Republicans, what’s your alternative to Biden’s agreement, another horrific Middle East war?

This nation has a myriad of difficult challenges.  Yet, all Republicans seem to do is lie about proposed fixes and obstruct others.

Numerous commentators and writers have been conjuring up dark scenarios for the United States this year, causing demoralizing fears about civil wars and impending threats to American democracy.  I agree that U.S. politics have been depressing since the 2020 election, particularly after former president Trump’s supporters attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021.  I have been trying to write more positive blogs to counter these horrific opinions, however, and events of the past two months are beginning to make that easier.   

Why?  Well, there has been a fair amount of good news recently that I find uplifting.  In June, the January 6 committee began telling a compelling tale of criminality by former president Trump and all those who attempted to reverse the results of the 2020 presidential election.  Then we learned that the Department of Justice has empaneled a grand jury that is focusing on wrongdoing by top officials in the Trump administration on January 6.  The best chance to indict Trump, however, may be in Fulton County, Georgia where a grand jury is zeroing in on Trump and those who attempted to reverse President Biden’s win in that state.

These investigations have prompted dozens of pundits to question if Trump’s 2020 voters will support him in 2024.  Absolutely, is the answer that I have heard or read from most of them.  Several have opined that what Trump did on January 6 hasn’t even damaged him.  A July article in The Atlantic, however, published the results from dozens of focus groups of Trump’s 2020 voters that have met since January 6, 2021.  The changing attitudes they reveal are insightful.

Most participants in focus group meetings that occurred prior to the start of the January 6 committee hearings in June, still wanted Trump in 2024.  Those in the nine groups since then weren’t so sure. Some found Trump to be “exhausting.”  One said, “I don’t want four more years of [bad tweets].”  Others thought the GOP could potentially get eight years of control with another candidate instead of only four with Trump.  In four of the final nine groups, not one person wanted Trump to run again.  Among various alternative candidates, these Republicans expressed the most interest in Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

As I have stated in previous blogs, in my opinion, Donald Trump will not be on the ballot in 2024.  That alone would be very positive, even if the Republican nominee becomes president.  Trump is surrounded by truly antidemocracy, sycophantic criminals who would attempt to keep him, and them, in power beyond four years, literally creating an autocracy.  I believe that any of the other Republicans who are vying to be the GOP nominee in 2024 would be much more likely to follow the rule of law and the Constitution than Trump, which would help preserve U.S. democracy.

Progressives were encouraged on Tuesday when the Republican effort to eliminate abortion protections from the Kansas state constitution was overwhelmingly defeated.  They now believe that abortion rights will be a significant issue in the midterm elections.  That combined with the radical candidates that Republican voters are nominating give Democrats a better chance of retaining control of Congress, according to a growing number of analysts.  They may also do better in critical governor’s races like Texas where Republican Greg Abbott may be vulnerable because he signed one of the strictest abortion restrictions in the nation.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is one radical candidate this year who is certainly not helping GOP efforts to retake the Senate.  It’s no secret that Republicans would cut Social Security and Medicare benefits if they thought they could get away with it.  Well, Johnson confirmed that recently during a right-wing radio show when he proposed making mandatory (automatic) spending programs like these two popular entitlements subject to yearly discretionary spending appropriations bills.  CNN anchor Brianna Keilar played a clip of Johnson’s remarks for analyst Chris Wallace, after which she said, “Sounds like cutting Medicare and Social Security.”  Wallace agreed and said it was a terrible policy.  He called it “suicide politics.”

On the plus side, Democrats have scored, or are teeing up, some significant legislative wins in Congress.  President Biden signed into law the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act in June, the first gun control legislation in decades, the CHIPS bill in July, which appropriates $280 billion to speed up the manufacture of critically needed semiconductors in the U.S. and the PACT Act in August, which expands health care benefits for veterans who were sickened by exposure to toxic burn pits during military service.  Congress also passed the accession treaty in August, which approves adding Sweden and Finland to NATO, thus helping counter Russia in Europe.  

An even bigger win for Democrats is nearing passage in Congress, the Inflation Reduction Act.  This bill would raise taxes on corporations and wealthy hedge fund managers, make the largest ever U.S. investment toward fighting climate change and reduce the cost of pharmaceutical drugs.  It would also further reduce the number of Americans without health insurance, which in 2022 is at a record low.  Economists agree that this legislation will lower prices for all Americans and even slightly decrease budget deficits.

Yes, I believe recent events are making it easier to be optimistic about America’s future.  Remember, Republican autocrats will only prevail if pessimism causes democracy-loving Americans to give up and do nothing to stop them.

Feeling helpless?  Many are!  Worried about the current state of affairs and the future?  Join the crowd!  But you know, when I think back on the situations that filled me with dread, particularly those that might significantly affect me or my family, I can’t remember even one that turned out as horrible as I had imagined it could.  And most weren’t bad at all.  It’s uncertainty that really frightens us, I suppose, and we are facing a lot of unknowns these days.

One that’s deeply worrying many Americans is a possible Republican takeover of Congress in 2022 and an election rigged by GOP-controlled states in 2024 that returns former president Donald Trump to the White House.  Many left-leaning pundits and Democratic politicians have conjured up fears about a Republican autocracy and the resulting loss of democratic processes in America.  I’m not saying their anxiety is unwarranted, but I don’t believe this scenario at all inevitable.

Right now, Trump is running scared for a number of reasons.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has bested him in several straw polls and is appealing to the hard-core Republican base that has been the former president’s greatest political asset.  Influential conservative Rich Lowry, editor in chief of National Review, wrote a guest essay for the New York Times in May titled, “Republicans Need a New Leader. They’re Looking to Florida.”  In it he stated “The governor is a leader in a new, Trump-inflected party, but without the character flaws and baggage of the former president.”  Lowry believes DeSantis represents “the new Republican Party.”

It appears that Trump may soon announce his candidacy for the 2024 GOP nomination in order to discourage potential competitors – and hold off federal and state prosecutors.  Some believe the latter objective has the highest priority.  Regardless, there are over 100 Republican primary winners who promote Trump’s big lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him, according to a recent Washington Post article.  An announcement before the fall midterms would really put Trump and his election fraud claims on the ballot then too, which is something the GOP leadership fears.

Whatever Trump does though probably won’t stop DeSantis, who I believe is preparing to challenge him.  One competitor, of course, would undoubtedly draw in a few others, including former VP Mike Pence and several ambitious GOP Senators.  Once emboldened, one or more of these ruthless politicians would likely go on the attack against Trump, just like he did against the primary candidates in 2016.

Oh, and let’s not forget the January 6 committee in the U.S. House.  Although, most Republicans in Congress and their right-wing supporters have dismissed this oversight effort as a politically motivated witch hunt, it is building a strong case against Trump, which appears to be both substantial and credible.  Even though unprecedented, I believe there is a significant possibility that the former president will be indicted for one or more crimes before 2024, either by the U.S. Justice Department or by Fani Willis, the Fulton County, Georgia district attorney.  In my opinion, Donald Trump will not be the GOP standard bearer two years hence.

Will Republicans win control of the House and/or the Senate in 2022?  Well, it’s certainly possible they could take either or both but I don’t believe it will be like 2010, when then-President Obama admitted that the Democrats got a “shellacking,” not only in the House but in states across the nation.   

The House is probably more problematic for Democrats.  Over in the Senate, however, they have a better chance of holding a majority.  First, there are only 14 Democratic Senators up for reelection compared to 21 for the Republicans.  At least three of these who won their GOP primaries, J. D. Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Hershel Walker in Georgia are struggling.  They remind me of 2012 when the Republicans ran some – shall we say – wacko candidates who lost big time.  Democratic control of the Senate would allow the president to appoint more federal judges, which is a really big deal, even if no significant legislation is passed in 2023 and 2024. 

Many say the major factor influencing the midterms is the economy.  Well, the June jobs report was surprisingly strong, as the unemployment rate stayed at a record low 3.6%.  The price of oil is trending down, which should mean a cheaper gallon of gas and the supply chain crisis is easing, which would help moderate inflation.  If the Federal Reserve can avoid creating a recession with interest rate hikes before November, that should improve the sour mood of voters who seem to be more focused on their pocketbooks than Republican threats to democracy.  

Also on the positive side, Democrats can tout the bipartisan infrastructure package they engineered, the first gun safety legislation passed in decades and the significant increases in wages that accompanied the great jobs numbers.  They and their supporters need to begin accentuating the positive and shake off the gloom and doom.

The political situation is nowhere near hopeless.  We the people have the power – perhaps the only power – to prevent Republican autocrats from taking over and the first thing is to financially support and vote for qualified candidates who share our concerns and beliefs.  Each and every one of us matters and is a valuable asset in the democracy-saving process. 

So, let’s get with the program.

Getting emotional and upset about the price of gas, the economy, inflation, etc. and voting for Republicans in 2022 is like getting angry over a broken dish or something and smashing your fist into the wall.  It won’t accomplish a damned thing and it’s certain to result in extreme pain.  I would caution those who might be favoring the GOP this year to think long and hard about what will result from their choices.

Republican policies should be one of their first considerations.  That is, what are Republicans currently supporting and what do they oppose.  Unfortunately, that has gotten much harder to discern recently.  The national party didn’t draft an updated platform at its 2020 convention.  Instead, delegates produced a one-page resolution that incorporated the 2016 platform and basically stated that the party would support whatever then-President Trump wanted.

The Republican policy dearth continued into 2021.  At a private dinner with donors and GOP Senate candidates last November, according to an Axios source, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told his colleagues that he didn’t intend to introduce a legislative agenda before the 2022 midterms.  McConnell wants Republicans to wait for an updated GOP platform to be adopted in 2024 and be 100% focused this year on lambasting Democrats for their failures. 

Donors typically want to know what their money is buying, however, so one of them at this meeting asked what GOP candidates would be proposing to help them win.  McConnell simply replied that the party wouldn’t be doing that.  Better to have no agenda than one that can be attacked by opponents, right?

Well, it doesn’t appear to me that Mitch is eager to help Democrats accomplish anything.

Yet, not all Republican politicians agree with the minority leader.  I’ve written previously about an 11-Point Plan to Rescue America rolled out by Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) last February.  Scott is the current leader of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and it appears he wants the party’s Senate candidates to run on his plan.  While many of them would probably be happy to do that, McConnell publicly rebuked Scott for this effort and aggressively shut it down.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) also wanted to draft a legislative agenda leading to the 2022 midterms, according to Axios.  He announced the appointment of seven issue-specific taskforces in June 2021 that are “designed to identify and develop policy solutions to the issues facing the American people.”  Last November he announced the first issue specific proposal House Republicans will promote, the Parents Bill of Rights. GOP House members have not produced a second proposal since then, to my knowledge, and I doubt if they will.  McConnell will see to that.

Okay, I think we can stop right here.  Why should any voter believe that Republicans will work with Democrats to help solve any of our current problems before the 2024 election, or thereafter, for that matter?  It’s obvious that they have a totally different agenda. 

Just consider the platform that delegates concocted last week at the Texas GOP convention.  I believe it proposes some of the most radical ideas that a Republican assemblage has ever produced in a single document.

Here are just some of its bombshells, many of which I believe grassroots Republicans all over the country would likely support. 

The Texas Republican platform:

• Rejects the certified results of the 2020 Presidential election, and holds that acting President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was not legitimately elected.

• Supports repeal of the 16th Amendment (Federal Income Tax)

• Supports the privatization of the Social Security system.

• Rejects the “bipartisan gun agreement” and rebukes Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), etc.

• Holds that homosexuality is an abnormal lifestyle choice that shouldn’t be protected under the law.

• Urges legislation to abolish abortion from the moment of fertilization.

• Urges repeal of all limits on candidate and campaign contributions by U.S. citizens.

• Supports defunding and abolishing virtually all federal government departments and agencies that are not authorized by the Constitution, including the Federal Reserve.

• Supports withdrawal from the United Nations and removal of the UN from U.S. soil.

• States that all gun control is a violation of the Second Amendment.

• Urges that the Voting Rights Act of 1965 be repealed, and

• Suggests that Texans vote on seceding from the United States.

Voters need to read this seditious, 40-page, 273 proposal document (Access it here.) to understand how strongly it promotes returning America to the 19^th Century. 

They should also watch a video of the delegates at this convention soundly booing Texas GOP Sen. John Cornyn when he attempted to speak about the bipartisan gun safety bill he is negotiating.  And they need to watch and hear some convention attendees harassing Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw – a conservative former Navy Seal who lost one eye fighting in Afghanistan – calling him “eye-patch McCain” because he supported Ukraine in its war with Russia and suggesting he be hung for treason. 

These hard right Texas convention delegates are a classic example of the inmates taking over the asylum.

I’m confident, however, that the more the Trumpian Republicans put their anti-democracy proposals under the media microscope, the more likely that voters will reject the candidates that support them.  That’s why McConnell has been adamant against drafting a legislative agenda this year.  He knows that it will show how Republicans have no interest in fixing today’s problems – and he’s right.

Okay, in other words, the U. S. birth numbers last year will never change, nor will their composition of race, gender and ethnicity.  That fact, although obvious, is very significant.  For example, along with immigration estimates and other factors, critically important projections can be made for new kindergarten students in 2026, college enrollments around 2038 and future available labor pools.   

These yearly statistics also help demographers advise politicians about how many individuals of which races and ethnic groups will become newly eligible to vote in future election years.  Republicans have been focused on these numbers lately; it drives much of their racist, replacement conspiracy theory and paranoia over immigrants.

The phrase “Demographics are destiny.” has been attributed to the 19^th Century French philosopher Auguste Comte.  It suggests that much of the future is predetermined by trends in current populations, i.e., which groups are growing and where and which are receding.  Population growth for the year is determined by adding the number of births, minus the number of deaths plus the number of immigrants.  So, what’s going on with the birth rate in the United States?

Like almost every other well-developed country, U.S. women are having fewer babies.  To some extent, this can be chalked up to women being better educated and employed, which gives them more power over their bodies and their lives.  Another very significant reason, however, is the high cost of having and caring for children. 

When we moved from North Carolina to Washington state, I immediately noticed many more young families with three or even four children compared to North Carolina where one or two was more typical.  A study by the financial website wallethub.com suggests a reason for this, Washington was rated the 8^th best state to raise a family in 2022; North Carolina was rated 37^th.  One of the factors influencing the rating in this study was median income.  WA was rated 3^rd in terms of affordability; NC was 37^th, the same as its overall rating. 

There can be no doubt that Biden’s Build Back Better Act would have stimulated U.S. birth rates by giving working mothers help with child care and schooling for pre-K children.  It would have provided for paid family and medical leave and significant child tax credits to make having children much more affordable.  Republican opposition in the Senate is the main reason this legislation failed, but West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D) prevented Democrats from passing it using the narrow budget reconciliation process.  Ironically, his state desperately needed this legislation.  West Virginia was rated dead last in a wallethub.com study, 2022’s Best and Worst State Economies. 

The low birth rates in 2021 combined with a shocking number of Americans who died.  According to the census data, 2,297 U.S. counties, or over 73%, experienced more deaths than births in 2021; that’s up from 45.5% in 2019.  No doubt, hundreds of thousands of coronavirus deaths caused part of this increase, but Americans also die of gun violence and drug overdoses at higher rates than citizens of other wealthy countries. 

The U.S. population grew by 2 million every year from 2011 to 2017, which was still low by historical standards, and only by 1.1 million in 2020.  Then, the U.S. population grew at the slowest pace in history in 2021, according to census data, adding a mere 393,000 people.  Yet, even if the coronavirus deaths had not occurred, U.S. population growth in 2021 would have been historically low.

Okay, what about immigration?  The number of immigrants tends to increase in good economic times.  After the U.S. added almost 1.2 million lawful permanent immigrant residents in 2016, according to Department of Homeland Security statistics, the number of immigrants steadily decreased through 2019.  Last year, only 245,000 immigrants were added.

The reason for this decreasing immigration is clear.  Former president Trump and his administration waged open warfare on immigrants during his four years.  Unfortunately, President Biden has not yet revitalized pro-immigration policies, according to a March article in The Atlantic

I think Caleb Watney, a co-founder of the Washington, D.C. think tank, Institute for Progress, correctly summed up the tremendous value of immigrants for a recent article in The Atlantic.  He stated that immigrants bring patents and Nobel Prizes in droves, help America stay ahead of China by driving progress in semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing and launch nearly 50 percent of U.S. billion-dollar start-ups.  Watney lamented, however, that while the rest of the world is begging international talent to come to their shores, the U.S. has been slamming the door in their face.

Watney makes a great point.  Elon Musk, a U.S. citizen and the world’s richest person, was born in Pretoria, South Africa.  Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO, and Sundar Pichai, Google CEO, are both U.S. citizens who were born in India.  Foreign-born executives like these and millions of other immigrants have been enriching our society and supercharging the U.S. economy for over two centuries.

My fascination with demographics grew after I realized how they show that the future is now.  Yes, our population is aging because the U.S. has too few births, too many deaths and not nearly enough incoming immigrants.  Clearly, Democrats strongly support legislation to correct these disturbing population trends.  Still, I believe corporate America’s need for abundant, skilled labor, including women with children, will force even a Republican-controlled government to take action.