Don’t despair!  The sky isn’t falling.  There are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the midterm elections, even though the past couple of weeks have been a gut punch for civil rights progress and democracy.  Yes, the conservatives on the U.S. Supreme Court eviscerated the last meaningful section of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, creating a gerrymandering war that primarily favors southern state Republicans.  This horrific decision will allow GOP-controlled states to redistrict sections of Black voters in metro areas into suburban and rural Republican districts, which could prevent them from electing a Democrat to the U.S. House of Representatives.  It appears that America’s court of last resort is mainly for white people.

Republicans in Tennessee and South Carolina quickly created new district maps that they believe will eliminate the chances for even one Democrat to be elected to the House in their states.  There is also a mad rush in Louisiana, Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee. Alabama, and Mississippi to resurrect the discriminatory districts of the post-Civil War 1800s.  Of course, there will be legal challenges to some or all of these maps.

Although a voter passed referendum in Virginia would allow Democrats to redistrict that state, and likely pick up four House seats, a conservative majority on its supreme court invalidated that plan.  Consequently, Republicans now cheering because they think they have a good chance of retaining control of Congress, and certainly the lower chamber.

Well, I do not believe they should be so damned sanguine.  Nothing significant that I have written about since last September has changed in my view.  President Trump and Trumpism are even less popular now; Trump is even more hated since he started the Iran war and I believe he appears weaker and less powerful as he struggles to find a way out of the war he started and ameliorate the affordability crisis it has caused for Americans.

On Sunday I watched a panel discussion that included former Republican congressman Charlie Dent (PA).  I met Charlie in 2006 and had some good discussions with him while we were both on family vacations cruising the Galapagos Islands.  Charlie is a moderate and I think he is a straight shooter.  He believes that President Trump is dealing with a dwindling empire and that the GOP will lose control of the House in 2027 – and I agree. 

There are several reasons to predict that Republican gerrymandering will not keep them in power.  Moving a section of Black metro voters into a previously safe rural or suburban Republican district makes it more competitive and easier for a Democrat to win there.  Charlie thinks that will be a problem in Texas and probably other GOP states.  He also opined that at least two Republican districts in Virginia might flip to the Democrats anyway and that could certainly happen to Republicans in other blue states too, even without redistricting.

But here’s the thing.  While Trump governs like a king, Republicans in Congress actively support him or remain silent.  Most Americans, however, are neither Trump supporters nor quietly accepting his power grabs and corruption.  Polls show they rate him very poorly across the board, including on the economy, the Iran war, the cost of living, even handling immigration.  His overall approval rating was 37 percent as of May 3.  But among critically important independent voters his approval rating was only 25% and this could be disastrous for Republicans in November.  

Trump is not on the ballot this year but his economy is, which will be a huge problem for Republican congressional candidates.  And almost every decision he makes seems to make matters worse for them.

As President Trump turns 80 this year, he is increasingly viewed as politically weakened, physically and mentally declining and out of touch with reality.  He appears to be more interested in building monuments to himself, like his huge, gawdy White House ballroom and the 250-foot-high “triumphal” arch in D.C.  Meanwhile, the vast majority of Americans who are not rich are struggling to deal with the higher prices of gasoline, food and other costs of living.  It is obvious that Trump doesn’t care what happens to these people or what voters think; he is focused on rigging the midterm elections with gerrymandering so he can keep screwing them and lining his pockets, mostly at taxpayer expense. 

In addition, the massive corruption by Trump and his administration will become very damaging in the leadup to the November election and will hang like a rotting albatross around the necks of Republican candidates for Congress.  They did not complain about his acceptance of a $400 million luxury 747 jet from Qatar, or that he and his sons are suing the IRS for $10 billion – a massive shakedown of American taxpayers – that he could decide to pay himself.  The numerous reports I have read indicate that the Trump crime family is at least 100 times more corrupt than he falsely accused Biden and family of being.

Yes, Trump and his sycophants are still dangerous and an existential threat to our democratic republic.  But I think voters are becoming wise to his autocratic intentions, and his corruption, which even MAGA voters hate.  With Trump as unpopular as he is, I still believe Democrats will win the House this year and maybe the Senate and that he and Trumpism will be history after 2028.

Many voters are probably wondering, “What the hell is Trumpism anyway?”  Well, it depends on which President Trump supporter or conservative pundit you ask.  Wikipedia describes Trumpism as comprising “ideologies such as right-wing populism, right-wing anti-globalism, national conservatism, Christian nationalism, and neo-nationalism, and features significant illiberal, authoritarian, and autocratic beliefs and practices.”  Whew!

A January 2018 BBC article quoted Ron Christie – a Republican analyst under George W. Bush – as saying that Trumpism is: “what the president believes on any particular moment on any particular day about any particular subject.”  If that’s true, wouldn’t Trumpism disappear when he is gone? 

No, says The Bulwark’s Johnathan V. Last, in a July 2025 post, because Trump loyalists have permeated all levels of the government.  It will be very difficult for a Democratic president to “de-Trumpify” the executive branch, according to Last.  He believes that the best way Trumpism ends is for the GOP and its voters to abandon Trump’s authoritarian project, which may be possible, but is not likely. 

The Wikipedia description is probably accurate, but as practiced by Trump, I find Trumpism to be dysfunctional, rudderless, visionless, reckless and cruel, without the broad public support it would need to survive. 

Recent reports and statistics I have read show that the past 14 months of Trump chaos – i.e., Trumpism – have been a disaster for America, its economy, its people and its government.  To me, there is not much about Trumpism that Americans would vote for in upcoming elections.  Meanwhile, Trump’s claims to Make America Great Again and put America First are becoming punch lines.

After campaigning on promises to bring prices down and avoid foreign entanglements, Trump’s tariffs and poorly considered attack on Iran are increasing the cost of almost everything working-class Americans need to survive, many of whom helped him win in 2024.  An analysis of the polls by CNN data expert Harry Enten indicates this group that earns under $50,000 per year has turned against Trump due the economic effects of his tariffs and war against Iran.

Yet, he is making their financial condition worse.  At an Easter lunch event on April 1^st, Trump claimed – no fooling – that the federal government, “can’t take care of daycare” because it is, “fighting wars,” and that daycare must be handled and paid for by the states.  He added that Medicaid and Medicare should also be state responsibilities.  Did he make these radical proposals because he wants an extra $200 billion for his Iran war this year and a $1.5 trillion defense budget for next year – an eyewatering 50% increase?

It is doubtful, however, that any state can afford to take over these crucial programs – even if it raises taxes as Trump’s message suggested – particularly one of the poorer, Trump voting red states.  With a recent KFF poll finding that health care affordability is the top voter concern heading into the midterm elections, Trump’s proposals are ludicrous. 

No doubt, Trumpism’s future will greatly depend on Trump’s approval ratings and all polls I’ve read show that they are at historic lows, with one dipping to 33%.  These polls are confirmed by an estimated 8 million patriotic Americans who protested Trump and Trumpism on March 28, “No Kings Day.”  And millions – perhaps tens of millions – more at home probably supported them.

I believe, however, that the Iran war will be a major reason for Trumpism’s downfall:  After the first attacks on February 28, it was evident that Trump had not planned for the aftermath of his reckless actions.  He should have known that Iran would close the Strait of Hormoz to shipping and launch counterattacks on the facilities of its Gulf neighbors, including those producing oil and gas. 

Consequently, even though many of its leaders had been killed and its military had mostly been decimated, by Easter Sunday, April 5, Iran seemed to have the upper hand.  This embarrassed a floundering Trump, so he posted a grossly profane message that morning claiming that he would obliterate Iran’s bridges and power plants if it didn’t open the Strait, which are war crimes.  Then the next day, he made a totally insane threat to destroy Iran as a civilization.

As a result, former Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and top podcaster Joe Rogan, among many other former strong Trump supporters have turned against him.  Even – gasp! – radical conspiracy theorists Alex Jones and Candice Owens have suggested invoking the 25^th Amendment to remove Trump from the presidency.  In total, these influencers have tens of millions of MAGA followers.  And they are angry.

No doubt, a significant number of Republicans will continue to be misogynist, racist, xenophobic, authoritarian and despicable, just like Trump.  But I believe they will be a much smaller, much less influential group in the GOP when he is gone – and I seriously doubt they will want their ideology to be called Trumpism.

Still, until 2029, voters must not get bogged down in hand ringing about the awful, undemocratic things Trump will continue doing.  We must keep focused on defeating his authoritarian agenda by donating to organizations like the ALCU that will fight him in court and supporting Democrats so they can take control of Congress and ramp up the oversight hearings in 2027.

When Trump’s second term has ended, however, I am convinced that Trumpism will have been destroyed by Trump himself.

President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, which posed no imminent threat to America, is being questioned all over the world and none of the several reasons the president has given for it have been convincing.  Moreover, his war is likely illegal according to the plain language of the U.S. Constitution; it is very unpopular with Americans; it is killing hundreds, and maybe thousands, of innocent people; and it is horribly expensive, costing around $1 billion a day according to current estimates.

I believe this war is seriously damaging Trump’s quest to establish an autocracy and, except for the military successes, this past week has been an economic disaster for him.

Obviously, the key to stopping a Trump’s power grab is for Democrats to win control of one or both chambers of Congress in November.  Many voters are suffering and affordability is a major issue.  Consequently, I believe Trump must significantly improve his approval ratings on handling inflation and the economy if he is to help Republicans retain control of Congress.  So far, the Iran war is not helping him with this challenging task.

When Trump wants to brag – lie – about how he is reducing inflation, he hypes the low prices of gasoline, which fluctuate with the global price of oil.  Soon after the bombs started falling on Tehran, however, Iran announced that it would attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This 24-mile-wide waterway off the country’s southern coast is where tankers carrying 20% of the world’s oil supply must pass through every day and that traffic has all but stopped.   

This has caused oil and gas production in Kuwait and Iraq to shut down because there are no more tankers to fill.  To make matters worse Iran has effectively attacked its Gulf neighbors.  They have hit oil and gas producing infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones and most air traffic in the region has been shut down.  As a result, Trump/Israeli war is causing economic hardship all over the world, particularly in Europe and Asia.

The Qatar energy minister speculated that oil could reach $150 per barrel if the war continues for more than a few weeks.  Oil is currently $93/barrel and will keep rising if this war goes on much longer, which will keep increasing prices for U.S. gasoline and many other products, including groceries. 

Last Monday, Trump announced that the attacks on Iran would likely last “four to five” weeks but could go much longer than that.  He has also stated that he will settle for nothing less than Iran’s unconditional surrender, which will surely complicate quickly settling the conflict.

This war is already very unpopular with Americans.  Last week, however, Republicans had the chance in both chambers to put a muzzle on Trump with a war powers resolution that would block him from using further military force against Iran – but they refused.  So, those running for Congress in November now own Trump’s war and will likely spend their campaigns defending it, which will be a total loser for them.

Of course, there are many diehard MAGA types who will vote for Republicans no matter what Trump does.  But millions of his 2024 voters just wanted him and the GOP-controlled Congress to reduce inflation, including many independents and some Republicans.  Now they are feeling betrayed, according to polls. 

As the price of oil has gone up, job creation has decreased, providing more bad news for Trump.  Last Friday’s jobs report revealed that 92,000 U.S. jobs were lost in February, increasing the unemployment rate to 4.4%.  In addition, the decent job growth numbers for the previous two months were revised downward, with December now showing job losses.  These jobs numbers for 2025 are the lowest since 2010 during the Great Recession, and 2026 is continuing this trend.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ report on February 20 showed that economic growth was 1.4% for the closing months of 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in the third quarter.  This caused 2025 economic growth to be the lowest since the pandemic.  To be fair though, the BEA estimates that 1% of the decrease was caused by the federal-government shutdown.  Another February BEA report showed that December prices had risen by 3% compared with December 2024, the highest rate of inflation since April 2024.

The Iran war, however, will not obscure these numbers on jobs, economic growth and inflation which will seriously hurt Republican candidates this year.

I believe the only way Trump can stop a Democratic wave in November is by interfering with the elections, either by cancelling them, federalizing them or significantly meddling in them.  Of course, the Democrats will challenge whatever Trump tries and it will go to the U.S. Supreme Court. 

I worry about how the Court will rule on these issues.  Still, it did strike down most of the tariffs Trump imposed last year and ruled that only Congress has the power to establish tariffs under the Constitution.  The Constitution also clearly gives states the power over elections, and I believe the Court will rule against Trump on election interference, if only to affirm its power. 

Remember, five of the seven crucial swing states have Democratic governors and if democracy loving Americans keep protesting and supporting like-minded candidates and organizations like the ACLU, we the people will beat Trump and his Republican morons in Congress.

The competition for the most hated living person in 2026 is probably the stiffest it has been in decades.  I mean, with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Elon Musk in the contest one might think President Donald Trump’s chances would be slim.  I believe, however, that he would win this title hands down.  And here are just a few of the many reasons why Trump would achieve this dubious distinction and how he is failing as a result.  

Trump loves to have leverage over friend and opponent alike and he wields it unmercifully.  For example, he uses his fanatical base of supporters to threaten and control Republican politicians, and I am certain that most of them seethe about it behind his back.

Trump tries to use tariffs and U.S. military power as leverage over every nation worldwide, including America’s closest allies and neighbors and they are appalled by it.  When he attempted to use these powers to force Denmark to cede Greenland to the United States, however, the European Union stood firm behind their NATO partner and quickly backed him down. 

This debacle made Trump and the United States virtual pariahs in Europe.  In fact, YouGov surveys found that large majorities in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Great Britain all had an unfavorable opinion of the United States because of Trump.  Vice President JD Vance was even booed at the recent opening of the Olympics in Italy.  

Trump has used tariffs and other coercion to bully our good neighbor and second largest trading partner, Canada.  I believe he wants this vast country as the 51^st state just so he can claim that the U.S. landmass makes it the largest country in the world.  But he has angered most Canadians and their leaders, who are turning to China and Europe to achieve more diversified trade relations.  To make matters worse, last week Trump threatened to illegally block the opening of a much-needed Canadian funded bridge into Michigan that he had earlier approved. 

Trump’s focus on the Americas as the U.S. sphere of influence is causing the Koreans, the Japanese and other Pacific allies to wonder if they can trust America to side with them against behemoth China.  They also fear that Trump’s trade deals are not reliable and might be reversed at any time, which is causing them to seek other trading partners too.

Here at home, Trump is angering almost everyone except his most avid MAGA supporters.  Perhaps he thought that the rest of us would cave in to his authoritarian extortion like the cowardly leaders of some major U.S. law firms, large media corporations and prestigious universities. It is becoming quite clear, however, that most Americans, like foreign leaders, are not about to kneel to an arrogant, untrustworthy, and stupid man like Trump. 

I believe the Trump inspired surge of 3,000 ICE and border patrol agents into Democratic-led Minneapolis was intended to stifle the city’s opposition to his administration’s inhuman and frequently unconstitutional immigration enforcement and deportation sweeps.  He evidently hoped that this invasion would set an example and discourage resistance to these efforts in cities nationwide. Well, fortunately, the opposite occurred.

Thousands of Minneapolis residents displayed America’s best neighbor for neighbor character by pushing back hard against the federal thugs that were ravaging their city.  I think these heroes are the major reason Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, announced the end of the 10-week Minneapolis surge last Thursday.  And I believe there are tens of millions of Americans like them, ready to stand up to and defeat Trump and the cowardly Republican politicians who support him. 

After federal judges ruled that Trump’s deployment of federalized national guard troops was unlawful, the White House quietly removed them from all cities and retreated from this blatant intimidation effort.  Moreover, federal judges in Michigan and Oregon, one appointed by Trump, have smacked down the Justice Department’s efforts to seize voter files from states.  The Oregon judge flatly stated that the department cannot be trusted with this sensitive data.

In fact, Trump is failing in so many ways that I cannot cover all of them in one post.  

• Nationwide, over 300 federal judges, Democrat and Republican appointed alike, have rejected the administration’s mandatory detention policy that was initiated last July. 

• The House passed a resolution rescinding Trump’s tariffs on Canada after six Republicans defied GOP leadership and voted with the Democrats. 

• Democrats easily won seats in the Texas and Louisiana state legislatures by double digits in districts that Trump won handily in 2024.

• The bipartisan pressure on the DOJ to release all the Jeffery Epstein files – which will likely show that Trump was frequently involved in Epstein’s depravity – is continuing unabated.

A February 6-9 Economist/YouGov poll shows Trump’s job approval among young voters dropping an unprecedented 51 points in just one year.   His handling of the economy approval among the critically important independent voters is down an eye-watering 53 points when compared to the same point during his first presidency.  If it were not for Fox News, and the like, extolling everything Trump is doing while totally ignoring the horrific harm he is causing, I think his approval ratings might be in single digits.

Citing the resistance of Minneapolis’ citizen heroes, famed political analyst, Nate Silver, advises “Don’t discount American democracy’s resilience.”  I agree.  But I believe it will also soundly defeat Trump’s authoritarian agenda. 

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If there is ever a seminar on ways to create an autocracy, Russian President Vladimir Putin and MAGA hero Viktor Orban, President of Hungary, will top the “how to” list.  President Donald Trump, however, will be cited as a classic example of how to fail.  If I were to reduce to a single phrase why our president will have achieved this distinction it would be, too many stupid decisions, too fast.  But to keep this post readable, I am briefly covering only a few of them:

After being elected mainly because he promised to boost the economy, stop inflation and lower prices, Trump imposed dramatically higher tariffs on imports last April.  Tariffs are a tax and according to the Kiel Institute, 96% of this levy is being paid by American consumers and importers.  Like a sales tax, its burden falls most heavily on middleclass and lower income Americans. Trump claims he will keep the tariffs even if the Supreme Court rules they are unconstitutional later this year.  Consequently, they will likely make almost everything more costly for voters going into the midterm elections in November when affordability will be a huge issue.

Trump pressed hard for Republicans to pass his One Big, Beautiful Bill Act last summer, obviously ignoring his blue-collar voters who thought he would govern as a populist.  The OBBBA eliminated the added subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and cut almost $1 trillion in funding from Medicaid, both to help pay for tax cuts for the wealthy.  This will cause millions of Americans to lose their health insurance, including numerous Trump voters whose continued support he needs to remain in power.

The very conservative Wall Street Journal’s January 13 op-ed slammed Trump’s failure to address the economic issues that are keeping prices high.  Its editorial board noted that inflation was occurring on things that most hurt lower-income Americans and that corporate earnings were not improving.  The board also criticized Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell, in essence calling it beyond dumb.

Congressional Republicans allowed Trump free rein for most of last year but he needs more of them to be elected in 2026.  Yet he likely caused Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) to quit the Senate after this term, giving Democrats a good chance to win his seat in November.  Trump also threatened to back a primary candidate against Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is already in a tough battle to retain her seat and he has inexplicably urged a primary fight against Sen. Bill Cassity (R-La.), a loyal supporter.

These attacks could enable Democrats to take control of the Senate in 2027 when they are expected to win control of the House.  How stupid is that?  If Democrats control Congress next year, Trump’s authoritarian agenda could be completely stymied and he might be impeached for a third time. 

Trump’s retribution mania, however, is beyond stupid.  Criminally investigating former FBI director James Comey and New York AG Leticia James, among others, has very little to gain and much to lose.  Threatening criminal prosecution against Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to influence the Fed is ludicrous when all Trump must do is wait until Powell’s term as chairman ends in May and appoint a loyal successor.  Even many Republicans in Congress are opposed to this mindless stunt that weakens the Fed’s critically important independence. 

One article called Trump’s retribution threats to cut federal funding for Democratic-led states – which would hurt many Trump voting independents and Republicans – a war against half of America.  He is giving the finger and saying F-you to most Americans, just like he did to the Ford factory worker who called him a “pedophile protector.”  Trump’s vindictiveness damages all Republican candidates in blue states where he desperately needs them to be winners in November.

By allowing Homeland Security Sec. Kristi Noem to unleash thousands of brutal ICE agents on America, Trump has showcased the evil of Trumpism for all Americans to witness.  These thugs are savaging U.S. residents, often unconstitutionally based on the color of their skin or their accent. They even attack U.S. citizens, like Rene Good who was viciously shot in the face and killed by an ICE agent.  Although ICE missions are being conducted mainly in Democratic-led cities and states, they are horrifying voters nationwide, even some Republicans.

Trump’s level of stupidity seems to rise every day, perhaps because he is in panic mode over the possible disclosure of the Epstein files.  This fear may have caused him to aggressively push to take control of Greenland as a distraction.  But he is also alienating big business by degrading American capitalism with his frequent edicts; he is waring with the Catholic Church; he has caused America to be feared, distrusted and disliked by our closest allies, and more – all in one year.

But here’s the thing: Trump’s job approval rating is now as low as 37%.  Videos show he is a tired old man who is slipping, both physically and mentally.  So, I am not overly concerned that Trump will somehow remain in office after 2028 or that he will succeed in replacing America’s democratic institutions with an autocratic regime.  

Still, democracy-loving Americans must begin planning on how to strengthen what Trump has weakened and rebuild what he has destroyed, while strongly opposing him in every legal way possible until he is history.

Events of the past two months have reaffirmed what I expressed in my October 11 post: With every day that passes and every new failure by President Donald Trump and his Republican lackies I become more convinced that neither he nor Trumpism will survive as a political force after January 2029.  Apparently, the insecure old man who brags “Trump Was Right About Everything” realizes that too because his erratic behavior shows he is beginning to panic. 

I have long believed that if Americans ever got a taste of right-wing ideology, they would soundly reject it in future elections.  Well, Trump is dishing that up in heaping portions with his tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy and attacks on the social safety net.  He is recklessly imposing the worst conservative policies on the voters and polls are showing that most of them do not like it.

One of Trump’s strongest selling points in 2024 was his promise to revitalize the economy.  Six recent national polls, however, show that Americans are not happy with his performance – even many Republican voters.  His highest approval rating on handling the economy was 40% and the lowest was 31%, with a significant drop in Republican approval, including an 8 point drop in approval by MAGA Republicans in one poll.  This is a sure sign that Trump’s support is seriously waning.

During a December 3 cabinet meeting, when he wasn’t napping, Trump blamed Democrats for the economic problems that he created.  He claimed “affordability” is a Democrat “scam” and “con job” that does not mean anything to anybody.  These comments make it obvious that Trump fails to understand or care about what Americans are feeling or suffering.  Ah, but Republicans on Capitol Hill know what is going on because they are hearing about it from their constituents every day.  Love him or hate him, they do not want to be tethered to Trump as his support craters and they are beginning to oppose him.   

One of the best indications that Trump is weakening and becoming less powerful is his failure to coerce Indiana Republican state senators to approve a state map that would likely flip two congressional districts from blue to red.  He promised to back primary candidates to take their seats, his supporters threatened violence against them and their families and Vice President J D Vance made two trips to the state to convince them to follow Trump’s orders.  A majority of these senators, however, joined Democrats to defeat the redistricting bill passed by the Indiana House.  Even in a state that Trump reportedly won by almost 20 points in 2024, he got stiff armed.

Trump is not doing well at the ballot box either.  Republicans have continued to lose elections, just like they did on November 4.  Perhaps the best example was the December 9 Miami mayor’s race, which was called a referendum on the president and occurred right in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago backyard.  Democrat Eileen Higgins bested Trump backed Republican Emilio González by 59% to 41% of the vote.  This is a city where Kamala Harris only defeated Trump by a single point.  Ms. Higgins becomes the first Democrat to lead this city in nearly 30 years and the first woman to ever hold this position.

Reportedly, Democrats are running around 10 points above their 2024 results, which is about the same number as Trump is behind his January approval rating.  No doubt, if Trump’s approval rating remains low, Democrats should do very well next November.  And if they take control of the House and/or the Senate, lame duck Trump will be basically finished, even with GOP politicians.

But here’s the thing:  The economy can improve, inflation may subside and it is even possible – though I believe highly unlikely – that the various Republican factions can unify.  But Trump will be 80 next year and 82 in 2028 and that is not going to change.  Even at 79, he frequently looks like a tired old man.

Articles with assessments of Trump’s physical and mental health are appearing almost daily.  He has swollen ankles, large bags under his eyes, a persistent bruise on his hand that he tries to hide and he is overweight.  There are numerous pictures and videos of him falling asleep at various functions, including the December 3 cabinet meeting.  He frequently makes no sense when giving one of his rambling speeches and his Truth Social posts are becoming erratic and delusional.  It appears that the more losses he suffers the greater the toll on his mental and physical health.  I believe that he will be lucky to make it to January 2029.

For a solid decade, Trump has been the glue that has held the various disparate wings of the Republican Party together.  His mainly working-class base is concerned about the economy, inflation and affordability.  The Republican authoritarians, the white nationalists and the billionaires like Elon Musk, however, do not care about them; but they each have very different, frequently conflicting objectives.

As soon as Trump is gone – and he will be gone – I believe that Trumpism will be history, that a vicious intra-party power struggle will fracture the GOP and that MAGA will essentially tear itself apart.

On that happy thought, I wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, and warm and wonderful Holidays, whatever you are celebrating.  Let’s keep fighting the autocrats and oligarchs to ensure that the New Year brings victories for democracy over tyrants, just as it did 250 year earlier.

For the past several weeks I have been recovering from major spine surgery, which has kept me from writing like I wanted.  But here are some of my accumulated thoughts.

It may take a week or so for the pundits and some Democratic politicians to get over bashing the seven Democrats and one independent who supposedly “caved” to the Republicans to end the government shutdown.  Regardless, I doubt if this will have any effect on the midterm elections next year so long as President Trump’s opponents do not get discouraged and let up pushing back on him and his incompetent administration.  And if Republicans believe this was a win for them, it will be very short lived.   

Why?  Well, during the shutdown Democrats caused most of us to focus on what the Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act is doing to damage America’s health care systems.  They also forced Senate Republicans to agree to vote on extending the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA), a.k.a. Obamacare in December.  This put the onus totally on Trump and his Republican lapdogs in Congress to decide if millions of Americans will lose health care insurance coverage next year.  No doubt, GOP members of the House and Senate dread taking this vote right before the critical midterm election year of 2026.

Adding to Trump and Republican misery this month were the wins Democrats scored in the November 4 elections.  This leads me to believe that voters are beginning to understand that Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress care more about increasing their power than they do about Americans.

No need to rehash the election results but my takeaways from them are very encouraging.  But it was almost a nationwide sweep by Democrats and they won by wide margins.  I believe the most significant of these were in Virginia where Abigail Spanberger will be replacing Republican Glenn Youngkin in the governor’s mansion, big wins were scored in the state’s races for lieutenant governor and attorney general and Democrats gained at least 10 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates. 

The frosting on the November 4 election cake though was the Associated Press survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City.  Without delving into the details, this quite comprehensive analysis shows that Democratic candidates had strong support from non-white voters.  This should be a huge positive for Democrats in the midterm elections next year after Trump attracted more Black and Hispanic voters in 2024.

Trump is obviously terrified of losing control of the U.S. House and I was concerned by the gerrymandering he has demanded to create more Republican districts in Texas and other GOP-controlled states.  Some right-wing political strategists, however, are also worried because it will move voters from safe Republican districts to districts currently held by Democrats.  This weakens the Republican districts, which could be a big problem for them in a blue-wave election.  Of course, this is also true for gerrymandering by Democrats, which would be risky in a red-wave election.  But so far, I have not seen any predictions of a Republican election blowout in 2026.

There is another encouraging sign that Trump’s grip on Republican voters is slipping: An Associated Press -NORC survey taken after the election but before Congress reached agreement to end the shutdown shows that only 33% of Americans approve of how Trump is managing the government.  These results are down from 43% in March, which the detailed results show was driven by eroding support from Republicans and independents

Another problem is also seriously weakening Trump’s support with his base.  The MAGA crowd has long demanded that the Department of Justice release the files on Jeffery Epstein’s sexual abuse investigation and Trump promised to do that during the 2024 campaign.  Unlike other promises he made, however, some of his most loyal far-right supporters, like Reps. Margorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert have not forgotten this one and are openly defying him.

Fortunately, Democrats got a subpoena issued to Epstein’s estate by the Republican-controlled House Oversight Committee that provided thousands of Epstein’s emails and other documents about his activities.  These are revealing that Trump spent a lot of time at Epstein’s house and “hours” with at least one young girl that Epstein was abusing.  These revelations have put Trump and the White House on the defensive. 

So has the bipartisan resolution demanding that the DOJ release the Epstein files, which is scheduled for a vote in the House next week.  If it passes, which is expected, it must be passed by the Senate, which is doubtful, and signed by Trump, which will never happen.  I believe, however, that much of the Epstein files’ contents will come out, one way or another.

Trump steamrolled his opposition for 10 months by flooding the zone with Project 2025 inspired executive orders.  Still, I believe the Epstein files debacle has stalled the momentum of his coup attempt and he is no longer looking invincible.  Consequently, those he is bullying will be more likely to rebel and his demands will tend to fall on deaf ears, like when Senate Republicans refused his demand to kill the filibuster.  And once people are no longer deathly afraid of Trump, he will have lost much of his power to complete an autocratic coup.

My friends, if we the people keep pushing back hard, we will beat Trump.

Several followers have told me that they appreciate my attempts to put a more positive spin on the future of American democracy but still have doubts that it can be saved from President Trump’s autocratic assaults.  I understand that.  But with every day that brings a new overreaching, attack on America’s foundation by this president and his Republican lackies, I become more convinced they will fail.  And here are just a few reasons why.

The United States is not like Russia, Hungary, or other nations where a democracy surrendered to an authoritarian.  America’s basic democratic institutions have been well established for almost 250 years under a dramatically different political system.  Their maturity makes them stronger and more resilient.  Like a healthy person, they may get sick and weakened by a virus (or a tyrant), but they have a much greater capacity to recover after the malady is eliminated. 

If in doubt, read a September 2025 article, accessed here on politico.com, that explains the resiliency of America’s democracy.  It outlines several attributes of nations that are most likely to sustain a democracy that is being attacked by an illiberal leader like Trump, and the economic and other conditions that cause a nation to fall prey to a dictator. 

It details how well established, wealthy democracies, like the United States, have a long history of surviving authoritarians.  That is because these nations value the rule of law over almost all other factors, including party affiliation.  Hard core MAGA types, of course, will not care about the rule of law, as long as the laws are applied against their opponents. 

Still, I believe that most 2024 Trump supporters did not vote for eliminating the rule of law, deporting almost all undocumented immigrants, severely limiting legal migration to the U.S., or shrinking the federal government to a small group of ineffective bureaucrats, which Trump is clearly attempting to do.

Nations that have typically succumbed to a would-be dictator were suffering from an economic or societal upheaval, like runaway inflation, rampant corruption or gang violence, and the man the people turned to was popular, with 80% of the population in some cases.  Once installed, these authoritarians gradually cemented their control, while not alienating the people, particularly their strongest supporters.  And unlike the difficult to amend U.S. Constitution, some easily amended their country’s constitution to allow them to serve for life.

So, are conditions in America ripe for a strong man takeover and does Trump fit the mold of a popular authoritarian?

Well, the U.S. economy has some weaknesses, inflation is creeping up and the job market is getting tighter.  But the stock market is bouncing around record highs and unemployment is still quite low.  It is Trump’s tariff and economic policies, however, that are being blamed for the inflation numbers and even anemic job creation. He is not a savior come to solve vexing economic problems; he is causing them. And that is driving down his approval ratings.

A recent YouGov/Economist poll showed that Trump’s handling of the economy, apparently the public’s number one issue, is underwater by 22 points, with 35%, approving with 57 percent disapproving.  This poll also showed Trump’s job approval rating at an all-time low, with 39 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving.  And VP JD Vance’s 32% approval makes him less popular than Trump, while 21% don’t seem to know anything about Vance.

Trump has enjoyed strong support from several different constituencies, businesspeople and rural populations, including farmers.  He even garnered added support in the 2024 election from minorities, younger Americans and lower income voters. 

Recent polls, however, are quite negative for the president in many ways:

An early August poll showed that almost two-thirds of Americans believed that Trump was corrupt, and 45% thought he was “very corrupt.”  Corruption in politicians is not a partisan issue, both conservatives and liberal voters tend to reject corrupt politicians.

Share of Americans in September who said the country is off track was 75%, an increase from 62% in June. This was likely due to the 51% of Republicans who are now concerned about the direction of the country.  Among Republicans 45 and younger, 60% said things are on the wrong track, a whopping 30-point increase since May.  And only 14% of independents believe the nation is on the right track. 

Trump and his administration are suffering mightily due to missteps with the Epstein files, with 81% blaming Trump for the coverup.  I believe this has eroded his support across most issues, because a September poll has him with negative approval on his handling of major issues that concern voters, tariffs, the economy, inflation, even immigration and crime.

Lastly, do not get me wrong, I am not trying to discount the terrible policies being imposed on us by Trump 2.0.  He is making drastic changes to the economy, the federal government and U.S. foreign policy that will be very difficult to reverse.  But that does not mean Trumpism will be the government of the future or that our democratic republic and its institutions as we have known them will cease to exist after he is gone.

I firmly believe that Americans have lived under the rule of law and the Bill of Rights for far too long to allow Trump and his Republican sycophants to destroy these bedrocks of democracy that have long made America great.

As British PM Winston Churchill reputedly said, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing, after they’ve tried everything else.”  So, now that they have elected Donald Trump as president twice, I believe his second term will convince most voters that they do not want any more of what Trumpism imposes on them.  In fact, they are already experiencing the authoritarianism, chaos and uncertainty it delivers and no doubt more of that will continue for the remainder of his term.

For nine years of my legal career, I managed a group of lawyers who were defending our company against hundreds of lawsuits.  The experience of winning over 80% of those cases that were tried before a jury gave me confidence that Americans will make the right decisions if presented with the unvarnished evidence.  I believe these successes were the result of the Rules of Civil Procedure that were designed to prevent bogus or unsubstantiated evidence from being considered by jurors in making their decisions. 

Unfortunately, no such restrictions apply in politics or political campaigns, particularly in the past three presidential elections. 

Lies and gaslighting by Trump and his supporters, however, will not convince voters if they cannot show that Trumpism is the right course for America.  This is particularly true regarding inflation and the cost of living, which are paramount issues.  But Americans are concerned about more than just the economy.  Recent polls show that most of them want the rich to pay higher taxes, the social safety net to be strengthened, abortion to be legal in some or most cases and immigration to be promoted not suppressed.  In other words, Trumpism’s core policies are already not at all popular.

As usual, Republicans have cut income taxes again in 2025, mostly for the wealthy.  But Trump’s tariffs are imposing a much larger tax on businesses and consumers, which will cause higher inflation that will hurt lower to middle income Americans and retirees the most.  And while the tariffs are slowing the economy and jobs growth, Republican’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will cause tens of thousands of Americans – many of them Trump voters – to lose health care insurance and food stamp benefits. 

Trump will be 82 in 2028 and his health, including mental health, does not appear to be all that good today.  It is likely that he will not be fit enough to campaign in 2028, even if he somehow gets around the two-term limit in the Constitution.  And it is likely that no one will want him to remain in office beyond this term, or maybe even this year. 

But what about Trumpism?   Will it survive his tenure?  Well, there are some very good reasons why I believe Trumpism’s days are numbered just like Trump’s second term.  Here are just a few of them:

Although the president promised to eliminate regulations, which most corporate leaders applauded, they are being replaced by his 200+ executive orders, his tariffs and his arbitrary dictates.  Consequently, corporate CEOs lack the degree of certainty they need to effectively plan for their businesses.  Worse yet, Trump is trying to become the unofficial co-CEO of many corporations and the government is taking part owner in some of them.  Trump appears to be copying China’s business model and corporate leaders are sure to oppose that.

Has Trump rolled back prices as he promised?  Well, no.  August inflation reports show how Trump’s tariffs are causing Americans to pay higher prices for groceries, clothing, shelter and utilities, as companies pass the cost of tariffs onto consumers.  “And this is only the beginning,” said Heather Long, chief economist for Navy Federal Credit Union. 

Is Trumpism creating jobs?  Not really.  The 263,000 Americans filing for unemployment benefits in early September is at the highest level since October 2021.

Are farmers prospering due to Trump’s tariffs?  Absolutely not.  Farming supports the entire economy of the rural heartland whose voters have strongly supported Trump.  Yet, in the current slowing economy, the tariffs may be hurting farmers the most, particularly the corn farmers and 500,000 soybean farmers, who expect a bumper crop this year.  As of early September, China, the largest single purchaser of American soybeans, had not placed even one order, according to the president of the American Soybean Association.  While Trump’s trade war with China has driven corn and soybean prices way down, his tariffs have significantly increased the prices of farm equipment and fertilizer.  Farmers are hurting.

What about manufacturing and construction jobs?  Well, they are shrinking in 2025.  The “goods-producing” sectors, including manufacturing and construction, have lost 67,000 jobs since April, and construction has shed jobs since May, according to Morgan Stanley economists.  And there were 78,000 fewer manufacturing jobs last month than in August 2024.  

Despite all these statistics, Trump is claiming there is no inflation and some administration officials will not even admit that businesses and consumers are paying for the tariffs.  They have taken gaslighting to an art form.

No political philosophy can retain support, however, when its advocates fail to produce what voters want and keep lying about obvious facts.  I believe time and negative results will catch up with Trump’s wrong-headed policies, his incompetent cabinet and his America First agenda that is leaving America isolated.  So, I seriously doubt that many Americans will want more of Trumpism when Trump is gone, even those who voted for him.

But First, the Disgusting Debacle in Alaska:

Every American should be appalled by the president of the United States kissing the ass of ruthless Russian dictator, President Vladimir Putin.  Yet, that is essentially what President Trump did last Friday in Alaska.  He warmly welcomed Putin like a friend, a man who has murdered over ten thousand innocent civilians in Ukraine and kidnapped hundreds of Ukrainian children.  Sadly, most Republicans are afraid to criticize this diplomatic disaster

I am confident that Putin and his aids enjoyed their best vodka on the flight back to Moscow, probably high-fiving and laughing about the buffoon they had just owned, and without giving him anything in the process.  Telling Trump that the 2020 election was stolen from him was enough.

Trump loves to wield his power to illegally suppress domestic opponents, and he has ample leverage to force Putin to negotiate an end to his invasion of Ukraine; he simply refuses to use it. 

When Barack Obama was president, some Fox News anchors pined for a president like Russia’s Vladimir Putin.  Well, now they have one.  Many Americans, however, would probably prefer a president more like Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.

Now, Some New Tax Break Pluses: 

The Republican’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) will increase the standard deduction by $1,500 for couples filing a joint return for 2025 and by $750 for single filers.  Thereafter, it will be adjusted for inflation.  And starting in 2026, couples filing a joint return can deduct up to $2,000 of charitable donations and up to $1,000 for single filers, even if they take the standard deduction. 

Also, many seniors 65 and over could get a tax deduction of up to $6,000 from 2025 through 2028, even those who take the standard deduction.  This deduction phases out for joint filers whose adjusted gross income (AGI) is over $150,000 but less than $250,000 and for single filers with AGI more than $75,000 but less than $150,000.  For example, the deduction for each joint filer, both over 65 with AGI of $175,000, would be $4,500.  For AGI of $200,000, the deduction would be $3,000 each and for AGI of $225,00 the deduction would be $1,500 each.

Deductions, however, likely won’t benefit between 40% and 50% of Americans who do not owe federal income tax, but we won’t know how the IRS will interpret these changes until later this year.

OBBB Deficits Could Cut Medicare Spending:

The OBBB will cause deficits of $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates.  The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 (PAYGO) dictates that all new legislation that increases the deficits requires offsetting spending reductions in selected mandatory programs, including 4% yearly from Medicare.  Social Security is exempted from PAYGO but other programs subject to reductions are farm price supports, the Social Services block grant and many smaller programs. 

Unless Congress passes legislation to override the PAYGO requirements, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) director, Russell Vought, must trim fiscal year 2026 mandatory spending by $415 billion.  This would reduce Medicare spending by $45 billion and other specified programs by $370 billion. 

Under PAYGO, Medicare spending could be reduced by $491 billion over the 2026–2034 period, which would be a huge minus.  Consequently, Republicans in Congress will be under pressure to totally circumvent PAYGO’s mandatory spending reductions.  I am almost certain, however, that Vought would prefer to retain its Medicare cuts.

OBBB Will Affect Household Resources

Republicans are deceptively claiming that the OBBB will give taxpayers an average tax cut of $3,752 in 2026.  So, if salesman Sam gets a cut of $500 and banker Linda gets $5,000 trimmed from her tax bill, does the average of these cuts ($2,750) mean anything for Sam?

The OBBB, however, will have a much different result, according to the CBO: Household resources in the lowest decile (10%) of the income distribution will decrease on average by around $1,200 per year over the coming decade. Those in the next highest decile will see an average decrease of $400 per year in their household resources. These results are mainly due to the OBBB’s $900 billion reduction in Medicaid and food stamp spending over the next decade.

The average yearly increase of household resources for the middle of the income distribution, the fifth and sixth deciles, will be $800 and $1,200, respectively, over the coming decade.  Those in the nineth decile will be doing much better, with an average increase in household resources of $3,200 per year.  Ah, but wealthy households in the highest decile will enjoy an average annual increase of $13,600 through 2034.  The highest income taxpayers mostly benefit from the OBBB’s federal tax provisions. 

My Conclusion:

An August Pew Research poll shows how Americans feel about the following:

OBBB – 46% disapprove, 32% approve, 23% unsure.  Trump tariff policies – 61% disapprove, 38% approve.  Trump making the federal government worse – 53% agree, 27% disagree.  Trump’s job handling – 60% disapprove, 38% approve.  And I believe these numbers will get significantly worse for Trump as his policies negatively impact the economy and government operations.

Trump badly mishandled the covid pandemic in 2020 and he lost the election.  Polls show a majority of voters believe he is mismanaging the U.S. economy in 2025.  And if that continues, as I believe it will, Trump and Trumpism could be history by 2029.