President Trump loves the leverage that tariffs give him.  He can use them to cause countries to kneel to his wishes, punish U.S. companies if they displease him and grant exceptions to companies that stroke his ego.  And so far, he has been able to wield tariffs like the dictator he is, without needing approval from Congress.  They give him the king-like power he craves and he showed he is intoxicated with it when he caused world-wide chaos with the reciprocal tariffs he launched on “Liberation Day,” April 2.  

Then on Tuesday night, April 8, just a few hours before the reciprocal rates were to take effect, he spoke for almost two hours at a dinner held by the National Republican Congressional Committee.  As part of his remarks he proudly said that countries subject to his tariffs were “calling us up,” “Kissing my ass,” and “dying to make a deal,” according to reports on the event. 

The next day, however, Trump paused the most egregious of the tariff rates for 90 days, citing the “yippy” bond markets.  There was good reason for concern because overnight they had begun to convulse, with a sharp selloff of U.S. government bonds and the dollar.  Evidently, Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent managed to convince the president that he would be solely blamed for an impending financial disaster if he didn’t backoff the higher reciprocal tariffs. 

Still, it seems clear that Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs affect the economy since he continues to claim that they will be paid by the exporting countries and not raise prices for American consumers.  Nor does he seem to know how his tariffs are damaging investors’ confidence in dollar denominated instruments.

U.S. dollars and bonds have been treated almost like gold for decades and a safe haven for almost 60% of the emergency reserves held by foreign governments.  Typically, investors hoard these assets during troubling times when stock markets tank, which tends to lower bond rates.  But the early April 9 selloff caused a rapid increase in bond interest rates and the price of gold that panicked Bessent.  This was an indication that confidence in the United States was rapidly eroding and that interest rates could go much higher, which would make the cost of financing our already huge national debt soar out of control.

Still, Trump has left significant tariffs in place, like 10% on all imports, 145% on Chinese imports, 25% on imported cars and more, causing China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. imports. So, investors are left with some pressing questions:  Will he re-impose higher rates in July?  Will significant manufacturing return to the U.S.?  Will a recession be avoided?  Nobody knows, of course, least of all, Trump. 

Although the stock markets partially bounced back with the pause, trade war jitters caused them to seesaw on Thursday and Friday and consumer confidence has plummeted to a record low.  I believe the economy damaging uncertainly that Trump’s hip-shooting policies are causing will continue unabated and that recession chances will remain high. 

Yet, ill-conceived as they were, Trump’s tariffs are a distraction from the deep and lasting damage that he has done to America during his first 83 days in office, including to its system of justice and the rule of law.  I believe this period is the initial phase of America’s Trump-induced race to the bottom and that the worst is likely yet to come.  And two of his recent executive orders are good example of that. 

One ordered the DOJ to investigate former Homeland Security official Miles Taylor, who wrote the anonymous op-ed published by the New York Times in 2018 that was highly critical of Trump, and who later wrote a book about his experiences in Trump’s administration.  Trump said, “I think he’s guilty of treason [a capital offense].  We’ll find out.”

The other EO ordered the DOJ to investigate Trump’s first term election security director, Chris Krebs, for allegedly being part of an effort to steal the 2020 election from Trump.  What was his crime?  He repeatedly and correctly told Trump that there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election. 

These EOs are so outrageous and unconstitutional that I wonder if Trump has lost his mind? 

It is no secret, however, that our trading partners and allies now believe that Trump, and therefore America, cannot be trusted to abide by agreements on trade, defense or intelligence sharing and no doubt that is factor in the growing, world-wide erosion of confidence in the United States, its Treasury bonds and dollar. 

Consequently, I believe Trump administration incompetence and America First policies are causing world leaders and investors to ask a very critical question: Is the U.S. still a safe haven? 

The answer could depend on policies that Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress implement going forward.  But I have zero confidence that they know what they are doing or care who gets hurt as they push major legislation that will give huge tax breaks to the wealthy, massively cut Medicaid and increase the national debt by $5 trillion over the next decade.

Make no mistake though, the Republican Party is happy with allowing Trump to govern like a dictator.  Fortunately, I don’t think he has consolidated enough power yet to make his dictatorship permanent and we the people are not going to let him do that.

Will Americans benefit?

As I started writing this post, the S&P 500 index had just closed 10% down from its recent high point and entered correction territory.  Reports indicate that the markets are reacting to the uncertainty and the chaos being caused by Elon Musk, President Trump, and the tariffs being imposed on our neighbors and allies.  It is crystal clear, however, that U.S. stock market declines, strong CEO pleas for clarity and recession fears are not deterring the president from what I call his “experiment.” 

Why use that term?  Well, blowing up the federal government by drastically reducing its size and spending, delegating its functions to the states and imposing high tariffs on America’s friends and allies have never been tried before.  The uncertainty is that no one knows how these radical policies will shake out, including Trump, his cabinet, and Republicans in Congress.

Trump defended his tariffs at a Business Roundtable event on Tuesday, touting them as “having a tremendously positive impact.”  Really?  Then, while speaking to reporters that afternoon he waved off stock market ups and downs stating, “We have to rebuild our country.”  He added that he was doing it the hard way, which would achieve results 20 times greater, and he concluded with, “Remember, Trump is always right.”  This from the man who has failed with numerous business ventures.

The question is though, will these monumental changes benefit Trump voters in 2025 and will a strong pushback tank the president’s approval rating, which is already in decline, and hurt the chances of Republicans running for reelection in 2026?  My guess is yes!

Last year, Trump won over 2,600 of the 3,143 mostly rural U.S. counties.  Residents of more than half of these receive 25% or more of their income from government benefit programs, according to a report by the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group (EIG), including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps.  Most of Trump’s voters are not rich people. 

Yet, the Agriculture Department recently hacked $1 billion from the school lunch program, which hurts both poor children and U.S. farmers.  Adding to that pain, the House passed Republican budget resolution requires cutting $880 billion from Medicaid and $290 billion from food stamps over the next decade to facilitate reducing taxes, mostly for the wealthy.  

Consumer sentiment has recently nosedived to the lowest level since 2022, according the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index released on March 7.  But the type of changes Trump and GOP are embarked upon could take years to yield positive results for Americans, if ever, while massive tariffs are certain increase the cost of almost everything American consumers need.  Lower income folks, however, are already struggling to afford essentials due to inflation, according to the CEOs of Walmart and Dollar General. 

Trump may not care what his voters think, but many incumbent Republicans across the country are already afraid to hold townhall meetings with their constituents.  If this continues, both they and the president will be in deep trouble with the voters.

What is Trump’s endgame in Europe?

It is obvious, Trump is turning his back on Western Europe and seeking better relations with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.  This begs the question, what advantage is this to the United States? 

Russia has a huge land area with abundant oil and gas.  It has a mostly poor population of around 145 million, a lot of billionaire oligarchs and a small 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.06 trillion.  But for its thousands of nuclear tipped missiles, I doubt if Russia would be much more important than a banana republic, ruled by an untrustworthy dictator.

By comparison, the European Union, plus the UK, have over 520 million citizens and its 2024 GDP of over $20 trillion was larger than China’s economy.   Germany alone had a GDP of $4.69 trillion and the UK, France and Italy also exceeded Russia’s output.  These allies are valuable trading partners and great markets for U.S. goods, while Russia has very little the U.S. wants or needs. 

Europeans now accept the fact that Trump has taken Putin’s side in Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine and that they can no longer trust the U.S. to defend them against Russian aggression.  Consequently, they are greatly increasing military spending, and their defense industries will be the beneficiaries.  As I expected, Poland is considering acquiring nuclear weapons and it will not be the only nation seeking greater deterrent against Russian expansionism.

So, I was not surprised that 34 army leaders from NATO, the EU, Japan, and Australia met in Paris on Tuesday, without inviting the U.S.  The bottom line is that Trump’s catering to Putin seriously damages America no matter how you look at it, economically, politically and militarily.

There is hope for the future.

The more I do the research for what I write, the more I realize how little I know about so many things.  For example, I read a single sentence in an article recently that was enlightening and helped me to be more optimistic for America’s future: “Authoritarian regimes can fail at everything, and they often do, but they survive as long as they succeed at one thing: the suppression of political alternatives.”

Well, I believe Trump and Republican politicians will fail, not at everything but at more than enough for Americans to reject Trumpism, and they are far from suppressing America’s political alternatives.

Almost everything President Donald Trump has done since the inauguration was proposed in Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership in 2023, including numerous changes to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).  But the Trump approved savagery Elon Musk has done to this agency – illegally I believe – is stupid and beyond cruel.  In Africa, children and pregnant women and others are dying of starvation and various causes due to their brutality, while Republican members of Congress, who typically support USAID, look away.  We cannot allow these reprehensible cowards to prevail.

Still, I am struggling to keep up with the damage Trump and Musk are causing, both in the U.S. and around the world.  It is so pervasive; I am not sure how to start writing about it.  So, here are just some – probably understated – observations about what I believe is occurring now and what could happen in the coming months. 

Around the World:

There was a world-shaking event at the UN General Assembly on February 24, the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:  Trump recklessly abandoned America’s 80-year-long position as leader of the free world by joining Russia, North Korea and fourteen other dictatorships in voting against a resolution condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine and calling for it to end its occupation.  Fortunately, it passed overwhelmingly anyway.  Trump is carelessly squandering America’s reputation and good will around the world that prior presidents have worked so hard to establish. 

NATO allies are now deeply concerned about America’s commitment to help protect its members against Russian aggression.  Reportedly, our Asia/Pacific allies have similar fears regarding China.  England and France have nuclear weapons but I suspect other countries, including Germany, Japan and South Korea will rush to develop that capability too.  Trump’s America First policies may play well with his MAGA base, but the nuclear proliferation that could result will make the world considerably less safe.

Here at Home:

Make no mistake, Trump is attempting to take total control of all three branches of the government.  He has even threatened to ignore court orders.  It is very possible, although not at all certain, that America’s constitutional republic, rule of law, and modified capitalistic economy will be replaced by an autocracy and/or an oligarchy, with Trump as its king-like leader.  I believe only democracy-loving citizens engaging in continuous, strong backlash can stymie his mission, and time is of the essence.

Trump’s firing of at least 17 agency inspectors general and the elimination of regulatory agencies, like the Consumer Finance Projection Bureau, paves the way for overreaching and corruption by both government and corporations. 

The ongoing purges of nonpartisan civil servants and agency scientists and experts will render our government dramatically less efficient and dangerously ineffective.  Trump has also signed a ludicrous executive order (EO) that will limit hiring of federal agencies – except defense and law enforcement – to one Musk approved employee for every four that depart.  This would rapidly reduce most government agencies to skeleton crews, leaving Americans without critical services and environmental protections.

Trump’s inflation inducing tariff threats, authoritarian decision making and continuous chaos are creating great uncertainty for businesses and consumers alike.  Republicans in the GOP-controlled Congress will add to these concerns as they battle among themselves to extend and increase Trump’s tax cuts, cut Medicaid funding and significantly increase the national debt.  I believe it is likely this will cause consumers and businesses to curtail spending and send the economy into recession this year.

Critical Litigation:

Numerous lawsuits have been filed challenging dozens of Trump’s EOs, most of which violate the law and will end up before the Supreme Court, according to numerous competent lawyers.  I will spare you the details of these cases and cut right to the worst possible results:

Trump could get total control of the 14 or so independent federal agencies and offices, including the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) that sets interest rates and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that regulates interstate and international communications.  In effect, this will render them dependent and politicized.

A major reason why U.S. Treasury bonds are coveted by foreign nationals and governments around the world is the independent U.S. Federal Reserve.  If it is politicized, investor faith in these instruments will decline and interest costs to service the national debt will skyrocket.

Control of the FCC would give Trump the autocratic power to reward or punish media outlets, including by revoking licenses for networks that criticize him and approving the purchase of liberal leaning media companies by his libertarian billionaire buddies.

Trump could also obtain unfettered power to withhold (impound) funds appropriated by Congress, which would seriously weaken, if not eliminate, the separation of powers and the checks and balances established by the Constitution.

On the Positive Side:

Strong protests are growing against Trump/Musk’s incompetence, and dozens of lawsuits are challenging their worst abuses.  Trump is attempting to enact core right-wing policies that have never been very popular with Americans, including dismantling the U.S. Education Department.  At last, Republican governors and voters can envision life in the conservative America they have often demanded – and many don’t like what they see.  This should greatly improve the chances that Democrats will retake one or both chambers of Congress in 2026. 

So, keep the faith and keep fighting against Trump’s radical agenda; we will beat these tyrants if we persevere.

The blog post I was writing can wait.  Events of the past two weeks make it imperative that Americans who love our democratic republic contact their representatives in Congress to demand that they take action to stop President Trump and Elon Musk from destroying everything that makes the United States of America a great nation and leader of the free world.

It is easy to find a way on the internet to email or phone your congresspersons, both Democrats and Republicans.  A call to a local office is the best way to get your message across but an email will also help.  My representatives are all Democrats but I have contacted them in hopes they will fight harder to protect our democratic institutions.

You may change my suggested email if you prefer, but I believe a shorter communication is more effective and engaging in personal attacks and/or the use of strong profanity will be detrimental to your message.  Contacting Republican representatives is very important, even if they are strong Trump supporters.

The last paragraph of the following draft email must be altered depending on if your representative is a Democrat or a Republican. 

Dear Senator or Rep.

President Trump and Elon Musk are engaged in a coup of the U.S. Government and one of their main targets is the separation of powers.  They want to emasculate Congress and wrench the power of the purse from the U.S. House.  If they get their way, the Constitution will be abrogated and even if you survive the next election, your voice will be meaningless.

The ongoing purge of FBI agents, who were simply doing their job by investigating the criminals that attacked the Capitol on January 6, 2021, is not only illegal, it will create a serious national security weakness that could result in another 9/11-like attack.  Firing FBI agents and DOJ prosecutors that worked on those cases strikes at the heart of the rule of law and our precious system of justice.

These are but a few of the dozens of illegal and unconstitutional attacks on our democratic institutions by Trump and Musk.  When people die as a result, every member of Congress will be blamed.  And I am deeply upset and angry with what they are doing.

If rep. is a Democrat:

You and the Democrats must do something dramatic to stop this attack on our democratic republic or it will become a failing Trump, right-wing autocracy.  Demand that your leadership take strong action and fight, damn-it, fight!!

If rep. is a Republican:

You should join with the Democrats and do something dramatic to stop this attack on our democratic republic or it will become a failing Trump autocracy.  Obey your oath of office and fight for your constituents, damn-it, fight!!

Sincerely,

Please take the time to email or call your representatives ASAP.  Time is of the essence.  Trump and Musk are quickly hollowing out the government agencies that protect us.  And once they have completed this process, it will be too late to reverse it.

It serves no purpose anymore to rage about what an awful man Donald Trump is, how unhinged he frequently acts, or why he should be held accountable for his crimes; he will be the president of the United States for the next four years and we must deal with that.  No doubt, President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress will seek to surreptitiously enact their radical policies – and they will succeed if we don’t know what they are attempting.  That is why my advice is to stay well informed as best you can and fight like hell against their authoritarian agenda. 

So, how do we do that during the next four years?  Unfortunately, it will be more challenging than ever.  Most of the important statistical information for articles by media organizations, thinktanks and public policy non-profits comes from 13 federal government agencies, including the Census Bureau, the IRS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Federal Reserve. 

Judging from his past performance, Trump will reject any data that doesn’t make him look good.  Consequently, if he implements his Schedule F plan to replace career civil servants with easily fired loyalists, I suspect that some government reports will be eliminated – perhaps in the name of efficiency – or will contain questionable or incomplete results either by design or due to incompetence.  Republicans have claimed for decades that the government can’t be trusted and now they are likely to prove it.

Social media organizations like X, Facebook and Instagram are catering to Trump and have ceased doing fact checking of user posts.  Like other sites on the Web, they will be filled with even more misinformation, some of it coming from Russia, China, Iran and other foreign adversaries.  I would not rely on anything that appears on social media, including recordings, photos and videos.

Even some mainstream for-profit news outlets, like the Washington Post and some major TV networks, may become more like Fox News that continuously provides positive stories about Trump and avoids any news that might upset him.  How widespread this becomes remains to be seen.  Therefore, we need other sources of information to judge their performance.

I suggest The Atlantic for enlightened coverage of politics and economics, The Bulwark for revealing what is going on in the Trump administration and Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American for a good analysis of current events and interesting political history.  Non-profits like USAfacts and the Peterson Institute for Internation Economics (PIIE), among others, will provide important research reports.  Also, keep an eye on the stock markets.  They are good indicators of the nation’s economic health, regardless of government claims.

Here are some facts that I wish every American voter realized: Tariffs are not paid by China as Trump claims.  They are paid by U.S. importers and usually passed along to consumers.  Undocumented immigrants are not taking American jobs as Trump claims nor surging crime rates.  The U.S. has had a shortage of workers since July 2021 and violent crimes and property crimes were considerably lower in 2024 than 2020.

Soon, however, the buck will stop with Trump.  So, he and the Republicans in Congress will have to start performing.  Yet, I don’t see how they can do it with the policies and priorities they have advanced, including extending tax cuts for the rich, slashing government agencies and programs, deporting much needed immigrant labor and imposing across the board tariffs that will likely surge inflation.

House Budget Committee chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is circulating a “menu” of possible spending reductions that members can consider for a reconciliation bill that could pare $5 .7 trillion from the federal budget over 10 years.  These reductions would offset the cost of Trump’s tax cut extensions and border security measures and would not be subject to a Senate filibuster.  They would cut billions of funding for Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and Obamacare.

But Trump won 2,600+ counties in 2024, many of which are rural, poor and heavily dependent on government benefits.  It is likely that Trump’s needy voters will get a bitter taste of his populism.  But, more on that in future posts.

Today, however, my focus is on Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. This program could cost $315+ billion, according to the American Immigration Council (AIC), and result in a decrease of between 4.2% to 6.8% ($1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion) of annual GDP.  To put this loss in perspective, the Great Recession (2007-2009) cut GDP by 4.3%, as reported by Forbes in 2023. 

Furthermore, undocumented immigrant households have paid tens of billions in federal, state and local taxes in recent years, according to the AIC, and boosted Social Security and Medicare trust funds with tens of billions of badly need funding.

Significant deportations would also cause an economy crippling loss of laborers.  Almost 14% of construction workers, almost 13% agricultural workers and seven percent of hospitality workers were undocumented in 2022, according to AIC data.  But among specialty trades, like drywallers, painters and roofers, over 30% are undocumented and so are 24% of workers processing agricultural products for sale.  No doubt these percentages will be significantly higher in 2025.

That is enough for this post; I will be writing about more Things Americans Need to Know soon.  In the meantime, you can learn about how you can help protect democracy by clicking HERE.

There is endless speculation in the media about what President Trump and his appointees will do during his second term.  Much of this is just too damn depressing and causing many news consumers to tune out.  The pundits frequently go beyond what MAGA officials can accomplish and fail to shed enough light on why they may not succeed.  Besides, trying to guess at what Trump will do is a fool’s errand.

I prefer to focus on why Trump will not be able to turn the United States into an illiberal democracy like Viktor Orban did in Hungary or anything like it.  Don’t get me wrong, he will cause huge problems, but he will not be omnipotent.

One obvious reality is that Trump is an old man who is not nearly as active or as sharp as he was in 2017.  I don’t think he is all that interested in governing nor do I believe he has a vision for America’s future.  He has mostly eliminated the criminal threats he was facing, which were his major concern, and probably just wants to take another four-year ego trip and greatly increase his wealth.  And there are many reasons why Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028, which makes him a “lame duck” this term. 

Certainly, much of what Trump has proposed will require action by Congress, which I don’t believe will be a slam dunk.  Republicans hold a slim House majority, 220 to 215 for the Democrats and a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.  Due to Trump’s cabinet appointments and Rep. Gaetz’s resignation, Republicans will have an even slimmer House majority, 217 to 215, for several months until after special elections can be held to fill these vacancies.  Even then, the House Freedom Caucus will compound the difficulty in passing Republican legislation without the help of Democrats.

Winning the 2026 election – that will occur a short 20 months after Trump is inaugurated – will be job one for every House member and for 33 Senators, 20 of which are Republicans.  Unless Republicans hold the majority in both chambers in 2027, which is no sure thing, the worst of Trump’s legislative agenda will likely be stymied.

Whatever Trump attempts, we still have the federal courts.  True, he appointed hundreds of conservative judges during his first term, including three on the Supreme Court, and he will get more confirmed starting next year.  But President Biden has also installed hundreds and so did President Obama. 

As you know, federal judges are appointed for life so they are not easily bullied.  Consequently, I don’t think they will roll over if Trump attempts to radically bend the law.  I expect the courts to mostly follow the Constitution and the rule of law, just like the Trump appointed judges did in rejecting his legal challenges to the 2020 election results.  Unlike the disgusting, supine Republicans in Congress, federal judges are very cognizant of the separation of powers and not inclined to give up their share, especially the Supreme Court.

We also have 23 blue state governors that have been preparing for a second onslaught of Trump’s lawlessness for months.  They are geared up to make good use of the courts to challenge him. Democratic states won most cases against Trump’s first administration, and they intend to continue the efforts to challenge any of his unlawful regulations or executive orders in the future.  And so will the ACLU and numerous other public interest nonprofits.

Trump made many wild promises during his campaign speeches and his supporters are expecting a lot from him as he inherits a world leading economy next year.  Consequently, he and the Republican-controlled Congress must perform for them starting in 2025 if they are to retain their advantage after the 2026 election.  

Over 85% of U.S. counties voted for Trump, according an NBC News article.  These mostly rural areas have older, poorer, sicker, less educated citizens who are suffering with fewer doctors, closing hospitals and substandard schools.  In general, they are more dependent on federal government benefits like Social Security, Medicare, food stamps and particularly Medicaid than the more urban counties.

Yet, Trump/GOP proposals on tariffs, deporting immigrants, Medicaid, Obamacare subsidies and school vouchers would hit rural areas the hardest, according to a well-documented December 13 article in The Atlantic entitled, Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters.  These would be some of the results say its author, Ronald Brownstein:

• Agricultural producers could face worse losses than any other economic sector.

• Hospitals and other health providers in rural areas could face the greatest strain.

• Millions could lose heath care insurance that is critical for combating substance abuse and chronic illnesses that are prevalent in rural areas.

• Small-town public schools would likely be more destabilized than urban school districts

Not all Trump voters are MAGA zealots that will support him no matter what he does.  Many realize that the economy is doing well in 2024 and want it to stay that way.  They voted against high inflation this year and they will be very angry if it gets worse due to Trump’s tariffs and deportation of immigrants.  

I believe those who oppose Trump should keep well informed and frequently email or call their congresspersons, particularly if they are Republicans.  That is the best way to thwart the authoritarians and oligarchs that seek to undermine our democratic republic.

Here is hoping that you have warm and wonderful holidays – a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah or whatever you are celebrating – and that your New Year brings fulfilled hopes and happiness.

No doubt many Republicans are thrilled with former president Donald Trump’s victory.  What frightens me, however, is that he won with a racist, misogynous campaign of lies and threatened revenge.  It makes me wonder if numerous white citizens and men ignored his demagoguery and voted for Trump out of fear their status would be diminished by a mixed-race female president.  And I cannot help believing that Trump’s victory writes a sad chapter about America and Americans, with a storyline that is deeply disheartening.

Yet, I understand why millions of middleclass and lower income Americans voted for Trump’s promises.  They have been screwed over by Ronald Reagan’s supply-side economic policies and Republican tax cuts for decades.  I can even sympathize with some people who didn’t vote.  They likely believe the party in power makes little or no difference for them.  But I cannot forgive the wealthier Americans who voted for a candidate who has bragged about ignoring the rule of law and subverting the Constitution.

Many Democrats are reacting to Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss with finger pointing and second guessing, but that doesn’t help the dire situation this nation is facing.  Now is the time for Democrats to objectively analyze why Trump won, organize to thwart his worst instincts, and plan to counter the Trump administration’s 2025 agenda.

That said, here are some mitigating factors that should help them.

Trump will be 83 in 2028 and legally restricted from another term.  That is to old, even if he is able to campaign.  Trump’s health can’t be all that good physically and his cognitive skills appear to be declining.  These impediments should prevent him from running again.  Current dictators, like Russian President Putin, were much younger and healthier when they took power.

Besides, many ambitious Republicans, like Sens. Rick Scott, Tim Scott and Marco Rubio, will be eager to run for president in 2028, and so will then-Vice President J. D. Vance.  The question is, can any Republican candidate take Trump’s place as the MAGA cult leader in 2028?  I doubt it; Trump is unique.  I don’t believe any of the aspirants will be able to entertain the GOP base like he can or bring hope – as Trump apparently does – to those who are struggling with their boring and difficult lives.  And it is even possible some MAGA voters might finally realize that the past 40+ years of Republican trickle-down policies are what have held them back.

Another fact of political life is that Republicans trying to hold their seats in Congress won’t want Trump’s economy damaging positions to burden their campaigns in 2026.  Consequently, they will likely try to counter his wilder impulses if they think he will hurt their chances for reelection.  In addition, if Republicans in the U.S. House are not able to unite due to far-right Freedom Caucus obstruction, Democrats will still have a lot of power – just like they have in the current Congress where they are the minority party.

Although he might try, Trump can’t unilaterally suspend the Constitution.  The Supreme Court’s almighty six conservative justices will likely rule against any position he takes that could weaken their power or that of the federal courts.  Their rulings have made the judiciary a powerful branch of the government.

One thing is certain, however, 2025 will be nothing like 2017.  Trump will be surrounded by seasoned veterans from his first term.  Both he and they will be much better educated on how to seize the reins of power and make things happen quickly.  And, there will be no traditional Republicans in Trump’s administration to hold him back this time; his advisors and cabinet members will be compliant loyalists.

One outlier though might be Susie Wiles, the Trum-designated White House chief of staff.  She must know how to handle her man-child boss and could influence his positions.  Wiles might even be able to restrain Trump from prosecuting his opponents.  Although his IRS and Department of Justice will be eager to do it.  Some Trump officials are already talking about revenge.

The surging stock markets indicate that investors apparently believe Trump will follow a more moderate economic plan and won’t impose across the board tariffs, but that could be wishful thinking.  Still, Trump seems to believe the markets are the economy and an indicator of his skill as president.  So, he may be reluctant to take any action that might significantly lower the S&P index.

Fact is though, Trump cannot close the borders, deport millions of undocumented immigrants, slap tariffs on all imports, particularly from China, and expect the economy to grow and inflation to remain low.  Many of the goods that feed U.S. manufacturing facilities are imported, including raw materials that the U.S. doesn’t or can’t produce. 

Moreover, our aging population is not providing the labor and skills needed by U.S. farms and factories; immigrants are supplying those critical resources.  And yearly U.S. budget deficits require the Treasury Department to borrow trillions of dollars, much of it from foreigners.  Trump cannot afford to blow off investors in other countries; American prosperity depends on them.

Bottom line, there will be major pushback on much of Trump’s agenda from many sides.

Regardless, America is obviously facing one of the greatest threats in its history.  But if democracy-loving citizens stay organized and focused on saving our democratic republic, I believe the GOP authoritarians and Trumpism will be defeated.

Just over a year ago, I published a blog entitled, “2024 – A Tipping Point for American Democracy.”  It described Project 2025, which I believe is a right-wing effort to establish an all-powerful presidency.  Sponsored by the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation and funded by $22 million, Project 2025 brought 70 powerful conservative groups together in the Spring of 2023 to strategize how the next Republican president could achieve their objective – presumedly former president Donald Trump. 

The nearly 900-page proposal they produced, “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise,” is to be implemented by thousands of conservative loyalists who could be vetted and trained by year-end 2024.  According to Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts, the objective is to dismantle the so-called “rogue administrative state.”  Critics, however, claim the goal is to establish a right-wing autocracy – and I agree.

Some of the more damaging Mandate proposals call for:

• Repealing President Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which are creating good-paying jobs nationwide,

• Dismantling the Department of Homeland Security, eliminating the Department of Education and reforming (politicizing) the Department of Justice,

• Outlawing all abortion methods and restricting the availability of contraception,

• Eliminating or politicizing the currently independent Federal Reserve,

• Reducing individual income tax to two brackets, 15% and 30%, and cutting the corporate income tax rate to 18%,

• Using a Schedule F executive order to replace thousands of nonpartisan civil service-protected employees with Trump-appointed loyalists who will obey him – or be fired.  

In addition, Project 2025 has drafted dozens of executive orders for Trump to sign on inauguration day.  Quickly appointed acting officials would then use them to immediately initiate an administrative blitzkrieg designed to overwhelm efforts to block their far-right agenda. 

Trump repudiated Project 2025 after it sparked public outcry, but I am confident he will quickly begin executing a very similar plan on inauguration day if he is elected.  Why?  Well, Trump’s transition team will be headed by Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon, who is the chairperson of the deeply conservative America First Policy Institute (AFPI).  This organization has a plan very similar to the Mandate entitled, “America First Transition Project: Ready on day one,”  which hundreds of former senior GOP officials have been working on since 2022. 

Regardless, Trump has eschewed the formal transition process dictated by the Presidential Transition Act.  It should have started months ago to coordinate with the current administration and ensure that agencies operate smoothly during a turnover.  Still, Trump’s representatives have had little communication with the Biden administration, except for one September meeting at the White House, and they have refused national security briefings, according to an October 9 New York Times article.  This is troubling.

But here is what really concerns me:  Trump was not threated by jail time and loss of his business empire when he illegally attempted to overturn Georgia’s 2020 election results.  Then, he sent a violent mob to attack the Capitol on January 6, 2021.  This year, however, is very different.  If he loses this election, he is facing imprisonment and financial ruin in 2025.  So, I am very worried about what he might do, both illegal and seditious, to ensure he becomes president next year.  And, Republicans at all levels of government will likely support him, including numerous state election officials.

Many of them probably want Trump reelected for life, and I believe most House Republicans will obey any command Trump gives them, even if it is illegal.  Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) – who some call “MAGA Mike” – is a Trump acolyte and 2020 election denier, so he may not try to stop them.  Nor will the few remaining reasonable Republicans and less MAGA GOP politicians in Congress; they fear Trump supporters will end their political careers and/or harm their families – and here is why.

Trump continuously incites violence and threatens opponents.  His lies about 2020 election fraud caused ongoing death threats against election officials from both parties.  After he lied about the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton, his supporters interrupted relief efforts and threated agency personnel.  And Trump has repeatedly called Democrats, like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Shiff, the “enemy from within,” which puts a target on their back. 

Just imagine what he and his supporters might do during and after the 2024 election – or if he wins.   

I sincerely hope I am wrong.  But the period from election day until the winner is inaugurated – and perhaps for months thereafter – has the potential to be the most chaotic America has experienced during the past 100 years.  It could involve protracted court battles, wild stock market fluctuations and even wide-spread violence.  And, in the end, Republicans in Congress or the Supreme Court may decide who wins.  As my July blog advised, Work for the Best; Plan for the Worst.

Do not assume, however, that GOP threats to democracy are temporary and that traditional Republicans will take over the party if Trump loses.  Its radical right-wing is firmly in control, and I believe the supporters of Project 2025 are committed to establishing a Republican autocracy, even if Trump is defeated.  But if Trump wins – well, preserving American democracy will take a monumental effort.

Borrowing some phrasing from the former president’s insurrection inciting speech on January 6, 2021 – if democracy-loving Americans don’t fight like hell to defeat Trump and these tyrants, we won’t have a country anymore. 

For decades the Republican Party has advocated for lower taxes, smaller government, fewer federal regulations and federalism (basically, states’ rights).  These policies were the core of GOP ideology as the party became closely aligned with corporations and the wealthy.    

During Ronald Reagan’s administration, Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist authored a pledge to never raise taxes on anything – ever.  It was signed by almost all Republicans in Congress and no Republican will vote for a tax increase to this day.  Norquist wanted to drastically cut the size of government by starving it of tax revenue.  He believed mounting budget deficits would eventually force Congress to drastically cut spending, even for Social Security and Medicare.

Last year, Project 2025, the conservative effort to reform the federal government, produced a nearly 900-page plan, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise (the “Mandate”) that provides details on what today’s congressional Republicans want to achieve.  It recommends either delegating many federal functions back to the states or privatizing them.  And it calls for changing the current disaster cost sharing formula of 75% federal, 25% state to a graduated formula where the states’ share would be 75% for small disasters and the federal government’s share would only reach 75% for truly catastrophic disasters. 

The Mandate also calls for winding down the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that FEMA administers and replacing it with private flood insurance starting with the NFIP’s least risky areas. Many homeowners in flood prone areas can’t afford flood insurance even under this generous federal program and no doubt many more would be unable to afford more costly private insurance.

When the scientific community overwhelmingly blamed human activities, like fossil fuel burning, for the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, Republicans scoffed and fiercely fought legislation and other efforts to solve the problem.  Not one Republican in Congress voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which is primarily a climate change mitigation law, despite the increasing intensity of wild fires, hurricanes and other weather disasters. 

Even as hurricane Helene was churning up the Gulf of Mexico, heading toward the Florida panhandle, 29 Republicans who represent the southeast states being threatened by the storm recklessly voted against a stopgap spending bill that would provide $20 billion in funding for FEMA’s disaster relief fund.  And Republicans refused to include billions in additional disaster funding that President Biden had requested.

Well, I believe the tragic death of a 75-year-old Western North Carolina man who got caught in tropical storm Helene is a perfect analogy for what will happen if Republicans who deny the threat of climate change get their way.  As described in a September 30 New York Times News article, Mr. R stubbornly refused to believe his elevated trailer home – which had weathered previous storms – was threatened by the rapidly rising French Broad River, even after all nearby residents had left the area as the storm approached.   

He was standing in the doorway, waving to his family on higher ground, when suddenly he – and his entire home – were swallowed by the raging flood water, leaving behind only parts of the foundation, which are pictured above. 

Miraculously, Mr. R managed to grab onto a tree and for around seven hours kept calling for help as distressed family and neighbors looked on from higher ground, helpless to save him.  Even a local river rescue team decided it was too dangerous to enter the treacherous water.  Finally, just before 11PM, Mr. R plunged headfirst into the water and disappeared out of sight.

Like Mr. Roy’s plight, there will be no way to rescue parts of the planet ravaged by climate change disasters if scientists’ worst fears are realized.  And while Helene’s horrific damage may take a year or more to clean up, a 12-inch or more rise in ocean levels or unrelenting warming temperatures or a mini-ice age, could take centuries to resolve, if ever.

A hurricane with destructive power like Helene has not ravaged the southeast U.S. for decades.  But what if one occurs again this year or begins occurring every few years due to climate change?  Well, as I am writing this blog, tropical storm Milton in the Caribbean is expected to strengthen to a major Category 3 hurricane or stronger before making landfall along Florida’s West coast on Wednesday.

Yet, these examples of the Republican’s disastrous ideology are merely the tip of their wrongheaded and nation-damaging policy proposals.  Cutting taxes, slashing federal programs and forcing states to bear greater responsibility and funding for disaster mitigation, health care, education, infrastructure maintenance and other programs as the Mandate and Republican authored budgets always propose are sheer idiocy.  And here is why:

Not all states are equal in their ability to handle added costs and functions and many of the least able are Republican-controlled, including the poorer states in the south and west.  They simply don’t have the economic base necessary to afford more responsibilities. 

The financial website WalletHub’s report on the states most dependent on the federal government in 2024 shows that the third most dependent, Kentucky, receives $3.45 in federal funding for every $1 its residents pay in taxes and that federal funding comprises over 46% of the state’s budget.  Numerous other dependent red states are in a similar weak financial condition.

Isn’t it about time for many of those who support Republicans to realize they are voting against their best interests?

What follows is the substance of an email letter that I sent to a bipartisan group of over 50 of my contacts on Monday, plus an important added endorsement of Harris at the end.  I crafted the communication to mainly focus on policies.   

In it I tried to explain why I believe that the 2024 election is the most important one since Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860 and express my opinion that it will determine if the United States will continue to be a democratic republic that is governed by the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law – or not. 

The following are the disturbing policies and plans being articulated by Mr. Trump and the GOP that I urged the recipients to consider before they vote this year.

One of my main fears is that Mr. Trump would withdraw from NATO during a second term and allow Russia’s President Putin to take control of Ukraine.  This would threaten the European Union, embolden China’s President Xi to annex Taiwan and dramatically weaken U.S. stature around the world. 

I also fear for U.S. national security.  During his first term, Mr. Trump was very cavalier with our nation’s secrets.  Then, upon leaving office, he carelessly took highly classified government documents to unsecured locations at his resort at Mar-A-Lago and he refused to return them when requested. 

My major concern, however, is for the U.S. rule of law.  Based on my legal experience and publicly available information, I am certain that an impartial jury would find Mr. Trump guilty of most of the remaining 50+ criminal charges against him.  The evidence is just that compelling.

Mr. Trump and many Republicans in Congress, however, are claiming his indictments were politically motivated. They are attacking judges that rule against him and lawyers prosecuting these cases, as if he is above the law.  And they are also calling for their Democratic opponents to be indicted and jailed. These actions seriously diminish the rule of law and weaken the foundations of our system of justice, which are critical to America’s stature as a nation and its economy.  And here is why.

Today, U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds are treated almost like gold around the world.  They comprise almost 60% of reserves held by foreign governments.  How did they achieve this lofty status?  Well, the U.S. has long been the world’s “safe harbor” for investment due to its rule of law and relatively fair and equitable legal system.  Without these two pillars of American justice the U.S. dollar would lose its stature, investors would demand much higher interest rates for U.S. Treasuries and the cost of financing our already too large national debt would soar. 

Most Republican politicians blame increased government spending for adding trillions to the deficits.  But tax cuts by Bush II and Mr. Trump have also added trillions to the national debt. And Mr. Trump’s plan to further cut taxes during a second term would force the government to borrow the funds to pay for it.  This is reckless and absolutely foolhardy.

Republican deficit hawks in Congress are eager to slash government spending.  But federal budget numbers show conclusively that the only way to achieve significant deficit reduction without increasing taxes – which they refuse to do – is to dramatically cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.  This would devastate tens of millions of Americans and very few politicians will vote to do that.

Oh, but Mr. Trump claims he will solve many U.S. fiscal problems with high tariffs.  That is a patently ridiculous proposal, however, which would be a tax on consumers, significantly increase inflation and likely surge the deficits.

America’s population is aging and U.S. birthrates are declining.  But immigrants are adding to the birthrates and even undocumented residents are providing much needed labor to bolster our economy.  Yet, Mr. Trump has promised to deport millions of them and even decrease legal immigration.  The resulting labor shortages would also cause significant inflation, seriously damage the economy and increase deficits.  

No doubt, the recent higher inflation rates and so-called “woke” issues have concerned voters and many may not like VP Kamala Harris’ policies.  But she and the Democrats are solidly for maintaining our democracy and the rule of law, which Mr. Trump has consistently threatened.  That is why over 100 former GOP officials who served under Republican presidents since 1980 recently signed a letter endorsing Ms. Harris, stating that “any potential concerns” about her “pale in comparison to” those over Mr. Trump. 

If Mr. Trump is defeated in 2024, however, traditional, conservative Republicans will have a chance to regain control of the party and nominate their candidate in 2028.

So, I strongly recommend that you vote for Harris/Walz.  Because if Mr. Trump wins in November, I believe that his clearly stated agenda would seriously damage our national security, weaken our democratic institutions, and cripple the U.S. economy.   This would not only wreak havoc on our portfolios, it would also dramatically affect the security and the wellbeing of our children and grandchildren.  And I don’t believe any of us want to risk that.

Best regards,

When my email was sent on Monday, I was not aware that on Sunday, a bipartisan group of over 700 national security leaders – many top names in the field – had endorsed Harris in a letter “To the American People.”  The letter states that she “defends America’s democratic ideals,” while Trump “endangers” them.  You can read it here.