Events of the past two months have reaffirmed what I expressed in my October 11 post: With every day that passes and every new failure by President Donald Trump and his Republican lackies I become more convinced that neither he nor Trumpism will survive as a political force after January 2029.  Apparently, the insecure old man who brags “Trump Was Right About Everything” realizes that too because his erratic behavior shows he is beginning to panic. 

I have long believed that if Americans ever got a taste of right-wing ideology, they would soundly reject it in future elections.  Well, Trump is dishing that up in heaping portions with his tariffs, tax cuts for the wealthy and attacks on the social safety net.  He is recklessly imposing the worst conservative policies on the voters and polls are showing that most of them do not like it.

One of Trump’s strongest selling points in 2024 was his promise to revitalize the economy.  Six recent national polls, however, show that Americans are not happy with his performance – even many Republican voters.  His highest approval rating on handling the economy was 40% and the lowest was 31%, with a significant drop in Republican approval, including an 8 point drop in approval by MAGA Republicans in one poll.  This is a sure sign that Trump’s support is seriously waning.

During a December 3 cabinet meeting, when he wasn’t napping, Trump blamed Democrats for the economic problems that he created.  He claimed “affordability” is a Democrat “scam” and “con job” that does not mean anything to anybody.  These comments make it obvious that Trump fails to understand or care about what Americans are feeling or suffering.  Ah, but Republicans on Capitol Hill know what is going on because they are hearing about it from their constituents every day.  Love him or hate him, they do not want to be tethered to Trump as his support craters and they are beginning to oppose him.   

One of the best indications that Trump is weakening and becoming less powerful is his failure to coerce Indiana Republican state senators to approve a state map that would likely flip two congressional districts from blue to red.  He promised to back primary candidates to take their seats, his supporters threatened violence against them and their families and Vice President J D Vance made two trips to the state to convince them to follow Trump’s orders.  A majority of these senators, however, joined Democrats to defeat the redistricting bill passed by the Indiana House.  Even in a state that Trump reportedly won by almost 20 points in 2024, he got stiff armed.

Trump is not doing well at the ballot box either.  Republicans have continued to lose elections, just like they did on November 4.  Perhaps the best example was the December 9 Miami mayor’s race, which was called a referendum on the president and occurred right in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago backyard.  Democrat Eileen Higgins bested Trump backed Republican Emilio González by 59% to 41% of the vote.  This is a city where Kamala Harris only defeated Trump by a single point.  Ms. Higgins becomes the first Democrat to lead this city in nearly 30 years and the first woman to ever hold this position.

Reportedly, Democrats are running around 10 points above their 2024 results, which is about the same number as Trump is behind his January approval rating.  No doubt, if Trump’s approval rating remains low, Democrats should do very well next November.  And if they take control of the House and/or the Senate, lame duck Trump will be basically finished, even with GOP politicians.

But here’s the thing:  The economy can improve, inflation may subside and it is even possible – though I believe highly unlikely – that the various Republican factions can unify.  But Trump will be 80 next year and 82 in 2028 and that is not going to change.  Even at 79, he frequently looks like a tired old man.

Articles with assessments of Trump’s physical and mental health are appearing almost daily.  He has swollen ankles, large bags under his eyes, a persistent bruise on his hand that he tries to hide and he is overweight.  There are numerous pictures and videos of him falling asleep at various functions, including the December 3 cabinet meeting.  He frequently makes no sense when giving one of his rambling speeches and his Truth Social posts are becoming erratic and delusional.  It appears that the more losses he suffers the greater the toll on his mental and physical health.  I believe that he will be lucky to make it to January 2029.

For a solid decade, Trump has been the glue that has held the various disparate wings of the Republican Party together.  His mainly working-class base is concerned about the economy, inflation and affordability.  The Republican authoritarians, the white nationalists and the billionaires like Elon Musk, however, do not care about them; but they each have very different, frequently conflicting objectives.

As soon as Trump is gone – and he will be gone – I believe that Trumpism will be history, that a vicious intra-party power struggle will fracture the GOP and that MAGA will essentially tear itself apart.

On that happy thought, I wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, and warm and wonderful Holidays, whatever you are celebrating.  Let’s keep fighting the autocrats and oligarchs to ensure that the New Year brings victories for democracy over tyrants, just as it did 250 year earlier.