There is endless speculation in the media about what President Trump and his appointees will do during his second term.  Much of this is just too damn depressing and causing many news consumers to tune out.  The pundits frequently go beyond what MAGA officials can accomplish and fail to shed enough light on why they may not succeed.  Besides, trying to guess at what Trump will do is a fool’s errand.

I prefer to focus on why Trump will not be able to turn the United States into an illiberal democracy like Viktor Orban did in Hungary or anything like it.  Don’t get me wrong, he will cause huge problems, but he will not be omnipotent.

One obvious reality is that Trump is an old man who is not nearly as active or as sharp as he was in 2017.  I don’t think he is all that interested in governing nor do I believe he has a vision for America’s future.  He has mostly eliminated the criminal threats he was facing, which were his major concern, and probably just wants to take another four-year ego trip and greatly increase his wealth.  And there are many reasons why Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028, which makes him a “lame duck” this term. 

Certainly, much of what Trump has proposed will require action by Congress, which I don’t believe will be a slam dunk.  Republicans hold a slim House majority, 220 to 215 for the Democrats and a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate.  Due to Trump’s cabinet appointments and Rep. Gaetz’s resignation, Republicans will have an even slimmer House majority, 217 to 215, for several months until after special elections can be held to fill these vacancies.  Even then, the House Freedom Caucus will compound the difficulty in passing Republican legislation without the help of Democrats.

Winning the 2026 election – that will occur a short 20 months after Trump is inaugurated – will be job one for every House member and for 33 Senators, 20 of which are Republicans.  Unless Republicans hold the majority in both chambers in 2027, which is no sure thing, the worst of Trump’s legislative agenda will likely be stymied.

Whatever Trump attempts, we still have the federal courts.  True, he appointed hundreds of conservative judges during his first term, including three on the Supreme Court, and he will get more confirmed starting next year.  But President Biden has also installed hundreds and so did President Obama. 

As you know, federal judges are appointed for life so they are not easily bullied.  Consequently, I don’t think they will roll over if Trump attempts to radically bend the law.  I expect the courts to mostly follow the Constitution and the rule of law, just like the Trump appointed judges did in rejecting his legal challenges to the 2020 election results.  Unlike the disgusting, supine Republicans in Congress, federal judges are very cognizant of the separation of powers and not inclined to give up their share, especially the Supreme Court.

We also have 23 blue state governors that have been preparing for a second onslaught of Trump’s lawlessness for months.  They are geared up to make good use of the courts to challenge him. Democratic states won most cases against Trump’s first administration, and they intend to continue the efforts to challenge any of his unlawful regulations or executive orders in the future.  And so will the ACLU and numerous other public interest nonprofits.

Trump made many wild promises during his campaign speeches and his supporters are expecting a lot from him as he inherits a world leading economy next year.  Consequently, he and the Republican-controlled Congress must perform for them starting in 2025 if they are to retain their advantage after the 2026 election.  

Over 85% of U.S. counties voted for Trump, according an NBC News article.  These mostly rural areas have older, poorer, sicker, less educated citizens who are suffering with fewer doctors, closing hospitals and substandard schools.  In general, they are more dependent on federal government benefits like Social Security, Medicare, food stamps and particularly Medicaid than the more urban counties.

Yet, Trump/GOP proposals on tariffs, deporting immigrants, Medicaid, Obamacare subsidies and school vouchers would hit rural areas the hardest, according to a well-documented December 13 article in The Atlantic entitled, Trump Is About to Betray His Rural Supporters.  These would be some of the results say its author, Ronald Brownstein:

• Agricultural producers could face worse losses than any other economic sector.

• Hospitals and other health providers in rural areas could face the greatest strain.

• Millions could lose heath care insurance that is critical for combating substance abuse and chronic illnesses that are prevalent in rural areas.

• Small-town public schools would likely be more destabilized than urban school districts

Not all Trump voters are MAGA zealots that will support him no matter what he does.  Many realize that the economy is doing well in 2024 and want it to stay that way.  They voted against high inflation this year and they will be very angry if it gets worse due to Trump’s tariffs and deportation of immigrants.  

I believe those who oppose Trump should keep well informed and frequently email or call their congresspersons, particularly if they are Republicans.  That is the best way to thwart the authoritarians and oligarchs that seek to undermine our democratic republic.

Here is hoping that you have warm and wonderful holidays – a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah or whatever you are celebrating – and that your New Year brings fulfilled hopes and happiness.