President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran, which posed no imminent threat to America, is being questioned all over the world and none of the several reasons the president has given for it have been convincing.  Moreover, his war is likely illegal according to the plain language of the U.S. Constitution; it is very unpopular with Americans; it is killing hundreds, and maybe thousands, of innocent people; and it is horribly expensive, costing around $1 billion a day according to current estimates.

I believe this war is seriously damaging Trump’s quest to establish an autocracy and, except for the military successes, this past week has been an economic disaster for him.

Obviously, the key to stopping a Trump’s power grab is for Democrats to win control of one or both chambers of Congress in November.  Many voters are suffering and affordability is a major issue.  Consequently, I believe Trump must significantly improve his approval ratings on handling inflation and the economy if he is to help Republicans retain control of Congress.  So far, the Iran war is not helping him with this challenging task.

When Trump wants to brag – lie – about how he is reducing inflation, he hypes the low prices of gasoline, which fluctuate with the global price of oil.  Soon after the bombs started falling on Tehran, however, Iran announced that it would attack any ship attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This 24-mile-wide waterway off the country’s southern coast is where tankers carrying 20% of the world’s oil supply must pass through every day and that traffic has all but stopped.   

This has caused oil and gas production in Kuwait and Iraq to shut down because there are no more tankers to fill.  To make matters worse Iran has effectively attacked its Gulf neighbors.  They have hit oil and gas producing infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones and most air traffic in the region has been shut down.  As a result, Trump/Israeli war is causing economic hardship all over the world, particularly in Europe and Asia.

The Qatar energy minister speculated that oil could reach $150 per barrel if the war continues for more than a few weeks.  Oil is currently $93/barrel and will keep rising if this war goes on much longer, which will keep increasing prices for U.S. gasoline and many other products, including groceries. 

Last Monday, Trump announced that the attacks on Iran would likely last “four to five” weeks but could go much longer than that.  He has also stated that he will settle for nothing less than Iran’s unconditional surrender, which will surely complicate quickly settling the conflict.

This war is already very unpopular with Americans.  Last week, however, Republicans had the chance in both chambers to put a muzzle on Trump with a war powers resolution that would block him from using further military force against Iran – but they refused.  So, those running for Congress in November now own Trump’s war and will likely spend their campaigns defending it, which will be a total loser for them.

Of course, there are many diehard MAGA types who will vote for Republicans no matter what Trump does.  But millions of his 2024 voters just wanted him and the GOP-controlled Congress to reduce inflation, including many independents and some Republicans.  Now they are feeling betrayed, according to polls. 

As the price of oil has gone up, job creation has decreased, providing more bad news for Trump.  Last Friday’s jobs report revealed that 92,000 U.S. jobs were lost in February, increasing the unemployment rate to 4.4%.  In addition, the decent job growth numbers for the previous two months were revised downward, with December now showing job losses.  These jobs numbers for 2025 are the lowest since 2010 during the Great Recession, and 2026 is continuing this trend.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ report on February 20 showed that economic growth was 1.4% for the closing months of 2025, down sharply from 4.4% in the third quarter.  This caused 2025 economic growth to be the lowest since the pandemic.  To be fair though, the BEA estimates that 1% of the decrease was caused by the federal-government shutdown.  Another February BEA report showed that December prices had risen by 3% compared with December 2024, the highest rate of inflation since April 2024.

The Iran war, however, will not obscure these numbers on jobs, economic growth and inflation which will seriously hurt Republican candidates this year.

I believe the only way Trump can stop a Democratic wave in November is by interfering with the elections, either by cancelling them, federalizing them or significantly meddling in them.  Of course, the Democrats will challenge whatever Trump tries and it will go to the U.S. Supreme Court. 

I worry about how the Court will rule on these issues.  Still, it did strike down most of the tariffs Trump imposed last year and ruled that only Congress has the power to establish tariffs under the Constitution.  The Constitution also clearly gives states the power over elections, and I believe the Court will rule against Trump on election interference, if only to affirm its power. 

Remember, five of the seven crucial swing states have Democratic governors and if democracy loving Americans keep protesting and supporting like-minded candidates and organizations like the ACLU, we the people will beat Trump and his Republican morons in Congress.