The theme of my September 2022 post was that Republican failures to deliver on their deeply conservative agenda was the main reason they can keep winning elections.  Why?  Because their small government, cut spending policies are so unpopular that voters would boot them out of office if they even tried to enact them.  Well, President Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress apparently intend to take that risk.  And I believe the pushback will douse the fire of their authoritarian ambitions.

It was appalling when Republicans in Congress sat on their hands while Elon Musk and DOGE recklessly took a chain saw to the federal government.  And it was beyond shocking when they let Musk and Sec. State Rubio terminate the distribution of USAID food and medicine to poor African countries. They are evidently willing to let tens of thousands of sick and starving women and children needlessly die to achieve small spending cuts.

Instead of opposing Trump and Musk by trying to prevent this humanitarian crisis, they either ignored it or lied about what was happening.  Then they got busy massaging Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), which will enact many conservative objectives that most Americans oppose.

Unquestionably, this bill will inflict the most pain on poorer rural areas where voters strongly support Trump and Republicans, and I don’t think these good folks are aware of that yet.  It has many harmful provisions, but today I want to focus on a few of the most egregious – deep cuts to social safety net programs and support for deporting more immigrants.

The primary purpose of the OBBB, of course, is to make permanent most provisions of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which could increase federal deficits by $4 trillion over 10 years.  We will not know the final numbers until the bill is ready for Trump’s signature but to offset part of the resulting loss in revenues, it will cut almost $800 billion from Medicaid and food stamp programs, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates.

Along with Medicaid cuts, OBBB’s changes to Obamacare could increase the number of Americans without health care insurance by up to 16 million, according to the CBO.  Critics are calling the it the greatest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in U.S. history, particularly from the lower 10% on the income scale to the top 10%.

I suspect that Trump and many Republicans do not understand all that Medicaid does, particularly in rural, mostly red, counties.  Well, it provides health insurance for 40% of America’s children under age 18, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation and pays for 41% of all U.S. births, according to the Medicaid website.  It also provides health insurance for a larger share of both adults and children in small towns and rural areas than in metropolitan counties in every state, according to the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families.

Many poor congressional districts that are represented by Republicans rely on Medicaid and food stamps. So do states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana that are represented by Republican Senators.  

Speaker Mike Johnson’s district in Louisiana is also highly dependent on these programs.  I don’t know what he is telling his constituents, but 38% of them benefit from Medicaid, according to the Kaisar Family Foundation, and many also need food stamps.  Louisiana’s Medicaid enrollment of 32% ranks second among the states and almost 80% of nursing home costs in the state are covered by Medicaid.  

Statistics show that Medicaid payments enable hundreds of rural hospitals to operate.  Still, many of them have already closed, particularly in states that did not expand Medicaid under Obamacare.  In 34 out of 40 Medicaid expansion states, 190 rural hospitals may close due to Medicaid cuts proposed by House Republicans in April, according data from the Cener for Healthcare Quality.  But the final legislation may increase Medicaid cuts and could guarantee that dozens of these facilities will shut down.

Rural area economies also benefit from undocumented immigrants.  Deporting hundreds of thousands of them will devastate farmers, food processors, health care businesses and construction companies.  Trump only recently woke up to that fact, which shows how ignorant he is.  So, he directed that raids be curtailed on most of these workplaces, some of which employ hundreds of undocumented workers.  Reportedly, his advisors quickly reversed this directive.  One wonders, who is in charge in the White House? 

The OBBB applies to fiscal year 2026 that starts October 1, and Americans have yet to experience the full effects of Trump’s tariffs or his round up of undocumented workers, both of which are expected to increase inflation.  Still, the results of 10 June polls show Trump’s job approval underwater in seven, with a low of 38% and a high of 54%.   The Fox News poll shows that 59% oppose the House passed OBBB and only 46% approved Trump’s job performance.

Republican factions in Congress are battling over the final draft of the OBBB.  As it nears that stage, more voters will realize the harm it will do and I believe more of them will oppose it.  Strong public opposition will give courage to more Republican officials and politicians to stand up to Trump and that will weaken him and his regime.  Pushing back hard against these tyrants is the sure way to defeat their authoritarian agenda.