Trump’s base is his power:

Would you believe that up to $50 trillion of income likely bypassed the lower 90% of American wealth holders between 1975 and 2020 and flowed mostly to the top 1%?  That is what a Time.com report estimates, based on research by the Rand Corporation.  Regardless, gross inequality has certainly held back working-class Americans for decades.  Democrats bear some responsibility for this situation.  But I believe Republican administrations since the 1980s played the major role in a huge wealth transfer, mostly with tax cuts for the wealthy, opposition to labor unions and refusals to increase the minimum wage.

Income inequality enabled Donald Trump to attract disaffected workers in both the 2016 and 2024 elections and with his showman’s skills and populus messaging lies, he crafted them into a hardcore Trumpian base.  They became his weapon to intimidate political rivals and take total control of the GOP.  It is imperative to his political future, however, that he maintain their strong support.

President Trump’s tariffs are hurting America’s primary job creators:

Small businesses are 99.9% of all U.S. businesses, according to a November report by USAFACTS.  They employed 59.0 million people, or 45.9% of private-sector employees, as of July 2024, and are responsible for 61.1% of overall job growth since 1995.  Many of them depend on imports for the products they make and/or sell.  They do not have pricing power like large corporations nor options to deal with Trump’s tariffs, so many of them operate with narrow margins. Consequently, even Trump’s 10% tariff on their imports will increase their cost of doing business and decrease their profits.  Almost certainly, many small businesses will lay off workers and some will go out of business.  No doubt, a lot of the people suffering will be Trump supporters.

Trump is damaging America’s greatest assets:

I believe the greatest near-term threat to America and Americans is the diminishing status of U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar that is being caused primarily by Trump’s America First agenda.  If investors around the world stop treating these assets like gold – as they have for decades – interest on our huge debt will skyrocket and financing it will become unbearable.  The point could be reached when only huge tax increases and draconian spending cuts to Social Security, Medicare and defense will enable the government to avoid an economic catastrophe.  And it will be the lower 90% of wealth holders and many Trump voters that will suffer the most.

Trump’s 2026 budget will hurt his most loyal supporters:

Republicans in the House and Senate, however, are ignoring America’s impending debt crisis and using the Senate’s 2026 budget resolution to craft Trump’s “beautiful” bill.  It will add $5.8 trillion (almost $7 trillion with interest) to the national debt over the next decade with tax cuts of $5.3 trillion and added spending for defense and border security of over $500 billion.  I am almost certain that hundreds of billions in funding will be cut from Medicaid, food stamps and education programs during this process and Democrats will have no way prevent it. 

Voting patterns show that Trump gets overwhelming support from rural areas where voters are poorer, older and sicker.  Medicaid supports around 72 million people across America and many of them also receive food stamps.  Seven states have more than 25 percent of their population on Medicaid health insurance, according to the health policy research website KFF.  Among these are Speaker Mike Johnson’s home state of Louisiana (32.4%), Kentucky (28.3%), West Virginia (28.2%) and Arkansas (27.4%), all of which are very poor and overwhelmingly voted for Trump.  When Trump supporters lose these benefits because he wanted to give tax cuts to the wealthy, I believe many of them will turn against him.

Trump wants to cut or eliminate FEMA:

Trump recently denied federal aid to Kentucky for disastrous flood damage in February and to Arkansas for damage caused by 14 tornados that struck during a two-day period in March.  Both states helped elect him last year.  Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders was among Trump’s most loyal supporters and his press secretary during his first term.  Unquestionably, the Federal Emergency Management Agency is a critical resource for Trump voting states, including the Carolinas, Florida and others that border the Gulf of Mexico.

Polls tell why Trump will fail:

So far in his first 100 days, numerous polls indicate that Trump is badly failing to properly deal with the problems his voters wanted solved, inflation, immigration and the economy.  Even a recent Fox News poll found that his approval rating is only 44%.  Other polls have his approval as low as a 37%.  Trump’s typically positive rating on the economy is at 38% approve versus 56% disapprove in the Fox poll and his approval number on both inflation and tariffs is 33%. 

Trump appears to have no plan for effectively managing his ill-conceived trade war and I think China’s President Xi will embarrass him before he backs down.  The fallout from his government downsizing will certainly cause numerous unintended negative consequences and his incompetent cabinet and staff will exacerbate them.  As a result, I believe his base support will significantly weaken, Republicans in Congress will finally start opposing him, Democrats will win one or both chambers in 2026 and Trump’s authoritarian dream will wake up to a stark reality.  Americans do not want another king.