Will Americans benefit?

As I started writing this post, the S&P 500 index had just closed 10% down from its recent high point and entered correction territory.  Reports indicate that the markets are reacting to the uncertainty and the chaos being caused by Elon Musk, President Trump, and the tariffs being imposed on our neighbors and allies.  It is crystal clear, however, that U.S. stock market declines, strong CEO pleas for clarity and recession fears are not deterring the president from what I call his “experiment.” 

Why use that term?  Well, blowing up the federal government by drastically reducing its size and spending, delegating its functions to the states and imposing high tariffs on America’s friends and allies have never been tried before.  The uncertainty is that no one knows how these radical policies will shake out, including Trump, his cabinet, and Republicans in Congress.

Trump defended his tariffs at a Business Roundtable event on Tuesday, touting them as “having a tremendously positive impact.”  Really?  Then, while speaking to reporters that afternoon he waved off stock market ups and downs stating, “We have to rebuild our country.”  He added that he was doing it the hard way, which would achieve results 20 times greater, and he concluded with, “Remember, Trump is always right.”  This from the man who has failed with numerous business ventures.

The question is though, will these monumental changes benefit Trump voters in 2025 and will a strong pushback tank the president’s approval rating, which is already in decline, and hurt the chances of Republicans running for reelection in 2026?  My guess is yes!

Last year, Trump won over 2,600 of the 3,143 mostly rural U.S. counties.  Residents of more than half of these receive 25% or more of their income from government benefit programs, according to a report by the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group (EIG), including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps.  Most of Trump’s voters are not rich people. 

Yet, the Agriculture Department recently hacked $1 billion from the school lunch program, which hurts both poor children and U.S. farmers.  Adding to that pain, the House passed Republican budget resolution requires cutting $880 billion from Medicaid and $290 billion from food stamps over the next decade to facilitate reducing taxes, mostly for the wealthy.  

Consumer sentiment has recently nosedived to the lowest level since 2022, according the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index released on March 7.  But the type of changes Trump and GOP are embarked upon could take years to yield positive results for Americans, if ever, while massive tariffs are certain increase the cost of almost everything American consumers need.  Lower income folks, however, are already struggling to afford essentials due to inflation, according to the CEOs of Walmart and Dollar General. 

Trump may not care what his voters think, but many incumbent Republicans across the country are already afraid to hold townhall meetings with their constituents.  If this continues, both they and the president will be in deep trouble with the voters.

What is Trump’s endgame in Europe?

It is obvious, Trump is turning his back on Western Europe and seeking better relations with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.  This begs the question, what advantage is this to the United States? 

Russia has a huge land area with abundant oil and gas.  It has a mostly poor population of around 145 million, a lot of billionaire oligarchs and a small 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) of $2.06 trillion.  But for its thousands of nuclear tipped missiles, I doubt if Russia would be much more important than a banana republic, ruled by an untrustworthy dictator.

By comparison, the European Union, plus the UK, have over 520 million citizens and its 2024 GDP of over $20 trillion was larger than China’s economy.   Germany alone had a GDP of $4.69 trillion and the UK, France and Italy also exceeded Russia’s output.  These allies are valuable trading partners and great markets for U.S. goods, while Russia has very little the U.S. wants or needs. 

Europeans now accept the fact that Trump has taken Putin’s side in Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine and that they can no longer trust the U.S. to defend them against Russian aggression.  Consequently, they are greatly increasing military spending, and their defense industries will be the beneficiaries.  As I expected, Poland is considering acquiring nuclear weapons and it will not be the only nation seeking greater deterrent against Russian expansionism.

So, I was not surprised that 34 army leaders from NATO, the EU, Japan, and Australia met in Paris on Tuesday, without inviting the U.S.  The bottom line is that Trump’s catering to Putin seriously damages America no matter how you look at it, economically, politically and militarily.

There is hope for the future.

The more I do the research for what I write, the more I realize how little I know about so many things.  For example, I read a single sentence in an article recently that was enlightening and helped me to be more optimistic for America’s future: “Authoritarian regimes can fail at everything, and they often do, but they survive as long as they succeed at one thing: the suppression of political alternatives.”

Well, I believe Trump and Republican politicians will fail, not at everything but at more than enough for Americans to reject Trumpism, and they are far from suppressing America’s political alternatives.