At the dawn of this election year, it seems likely that the results of the November election will depend significantly on what happens in the economy between now and October.  Today, Americans may be focusing more on the bad news and ignoring or unaware of all the good news.  In fact, there are more positive indicators today than I can include in this blog.  Hiding in the dark forest of recent scary articles, however, was one that caught my attention: Americans are too pessimistic about the future.  It recalled an old song, “I’m a lonely little petunia in an onion patch.”

This article by Washington Post foreign affairs columnist Fareed Zakaria covers some of the same positive economic news that I included in my December 16 blog, but from a more international perspective.  For example, he reported that the International Monetary Fund’s expected 2023 U.S. growth rate of 2.1% is substantially better than anticipated for Canada, Germany, Britain and other developed Western countries.

But a couple of other points Mr. Zakaria briefly mentioned are also very significant.  One was that the U.S. is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas.  This makes laughable the MAGA leader’s plans as a “dictator” on day one of his presidency to “drill, drill, drill.”  According to another WAPO article on December 31, the U.S. is currently “producing more oil that any country ever has,” which is keeping the price of gasoline reasonable and moderating inflation.

Another emphasized America’s positive demographics for the future.  Zakaria states that legal immigration increases U.S. population by around one million persons each year, while those in Japan, and other developed nations are slowing diminishing.  This adds to the number of U.S. workers, which is critical to support a growing economy.  China’s is shrinking to the point that the government is encouraging women to quit working and have more babies.  Truth is, immigrants are now and always have been a huge positive for our nation and will continue to be in the future.

Zakaria also referred to the latest Pew Research Center survey on how 24 countries view the United States versus China.  It revealed that 22 of them believe the U.S. contributes more favorably to peace and stability around the world, particularly by huge margins in Japan, South Korea and India.  That attitude will help America maintain its global leadership and bolster democracy.

There were numerous other articles that contained some really good news too, including one about decreasing U.S. crime rates.  Republicans will use misinformation to hype rampant criminal violence in coming months.  Yet, almost all criminal activity significantly decreased in 2023, except auto theft, according to an article by Jeff Asher, a freelance writer who studies the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports.  He refers to last year’s third quarter FBI reports – the most recent available – which show that violent crime in the U.S. was down by 8.2% in the previous nine months.  Asher’s research also shows that murder is down a whopping 12.7 percent as of last November, having declined in 73 percent of over 175 cities where data is available. 

There is a very promising article by Axios this month on the state of manufacturing in the U.S.  It presents a graph of Census Bureau data compiled by the Federal Reserve that shows manufacturing-related construction spending increased to a stellar $210 billion annual rate last November, which is over three times the average rate in the previous decade.  This piece by Emily Peck credits President Biden’s Chips Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure law for the surge in overall construction spending.  When operating, these factories will provide good paying jobs for thousands of Americans, particularly in red states where many of them are located. 

Another January article from Axios reports that the average monthly hiring by construction firms last year was 16,000, according to the U.S. Labor Department, far surpassing the 11,000 per month they added pre-pandemic in 2019.  Plus, there were nearly a half million unfilled construction jobs last November, near the highest since 2000, when record keeping began.  And 216,000 total jobs were added in December.

True, stubborn inflation has been a drag on consumer optimism since 2021.  Median inflation estimates, however, declined for the one, three and five year time frames according to the December 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  Consumer sentiment showed a positive gain of 15% between December 2022 and December 2023, according to the Economic Index of personal finance website WalletHub.  And a Center for American Progress chart shows that 57% of U.S. workers have received raises that exceeded inflation.

An Associated Press-NORC December poll found that issues related to the economy are a top priority for American voters this year, which means all the above is hugely important for the November election and should bode well for President Biden. 

Republicans are hoping their misinformation will convince voters that the U.S. economy is in the toilet and that only they can fix it, even though they have outlined no viable policies to do so.  Instead of hope for the future, they promote fear, anxiety and hopelessness. 

Many economists and political commentators tell us, however, that voters will make their decisions based on their personal situations.  So, notwithstanding current polls, I believe chances are quite good that most of them will feel much more positive about the economy, and Biden, in November.